Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Periods of rain moving across the Western Corn Belt this week, showers across Argentina, Europe, and Australia, and an eye on central Brazil's rainfall are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WESTERN MIDWEST SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK

Temperatures increased over the weekend in the Midwest. A streak of showers developed from central Minnesota arcing down through Indiana, but much of that rainfall is too late for being beneficial for corn and soybeans that are on the path to maturity and harvest. Isolated showers continue over western areas early to mid-week. Showers will increase late this week and spread eastward this weekend. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

CONTINUED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Areas of showers moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. Some areas of heavy rain pushed back the drydown of corn and soybeans while other areas found the rainfall favorable. Rainfall in the southwest favored planting and establishment of winter wheat. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week and should push south and east out of the area this weekend.

MORE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend while temperatures increased. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week. That will favor immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going.

LACK OF RAIN CAUSING MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO FALL TO LOW LEVELS

It was largely hot and dry in the Delta over the weekend, which caused water levels on the Mississippi River to continue falling. Very little precipitation for most of this week will continue that trend. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest later this week into next week, which may bring some more rainfall in the region, as well as the Mississippi River system.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING MORE RAIN, CENTRAL STATES AWAIT START OF WET SEASON

Spring planting is underway across southern Brazil, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. A front moving through Sunday and Monday is producing some more rainfall for these areas, but should lose its rainfall as it moves northward. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall, but would only be a couple of days early. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA, SOME COLD AIR

Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers in Argentina, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it in the middle of this week, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

RECENT RAINFALL IN EUROPE LARGELY FAVORABLE

Waves of rain have been increasing soil moisture for most of Europe over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break would now be more favorable, which could happen for a lot of areas this week. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the southeast could use more rainfall, though.

DESPITE SOME SHOWERS, DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

Showers fell across far western Ukraine over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry and fairly warm. While the warmth is fine, the region needs a lot of rainfall for planting winter wheat. A system will slowly move through the region this week and have increased its rainfall, but it does not look to provide a whole lot of needed rainfall. Dry weather is forecast afterward as well.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA STILL NEEDS MORE RAIN

A system moved through western Australia with some rainfall over the weekend and will move through eastern areas with needed rainfall early this week. Not all areas will receive the rainfall they need, but it will be welcome regardless. A system that only scrapes western areas midweek should provide more beneficial rainfall later this week to eastern areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China lately. Those with corn and soybeans would likely favor some drier weather while those in central China would like showers to continue as they plant winter wheat and canola. Most areas will get what they need this week with showers across central areas with drier conditions in the northeast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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