DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in northern Canada and another in western Canada. The ridge will slide to the Plains over the weekend into next week and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough shifts into the Eastern U.S. and Canada for next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August, though it will likely shift around. The western Canada trough will move into the Gulf of Alaska, but still send pieces of energy over and through the ridge, which keeps some showers going through the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and when to produce precipitation. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A strong front will push through most of the eastern U.S. for mid-late next week where scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur. Temperatures will be hot ahead of that front but drop drastically behind it. The cooler temperatures may not make it down to the Southern Plains or Gulf, but most areas would find relief from the heat. Another system may move into the Plains next weekend.

Meanwhile, temperatures should increase in the Pacific Northwest next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...110 AT TOLLESON, AZ

LOW THU...28 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...NEW ORLEANS, LA 2.13 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in northern Canada and another in western Canada. The ridge will slide to the Plains over the weekend into next week and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough shifts into the Eastern U.S. and Canada for next week. The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August, though it will likely shift around. The western Canada trough will move into the Gulf of Alaska, but still send pieces of energy over and through the ridge, which keeps some showers going through the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and when to produce precipitation. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A strong front will push through most of the eastern U.S. for mid-late next week where scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur. Temperatures will be hot ahead of that front but drop drastically behind it. The cooler temperatures may not make it down to the Southern Plains or Gulf, but most areas would find relief from the heat. Another system may move into the Plains next weekend.

Meanwhile, temperatures should increase in the Pacific Northwest next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been and continue to move through the region through next week. Heavy rain so far this week has led to a significant increase in soil moisture in most areas. A ridge to the south may increase and may force the rainfall to become more limited and temperatures to increase with time. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers continue along a stalled front around Kansas on Friday and another front should be strong enough to bring in some milder air and showers later next week. Southern areas are trending hotter and drier going into August, which may cause flash drought to develop if realized. Northern areas could still see rainfall coming from disturbances sneaking through a stout ridge, which would be favorable should it occur going into August.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is stalling across the southern half of the region on Friday and will produce scattered showers there through the weekend, easing some of the heat, but not much of it as hot and humid conditions get another boost going into next week. A stronger front will move through in pieces next week, bringing through more scattered showers and thunderstorms and ending the heatwave. Though heat has been and will be intense, overall good soil moisture and rainfall should help to mitigate the stress in most areas.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers will remain possible through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal, but a tropical disturbance moving through the Gulf is producing some heavier rain across the south going into the weekend. Northern areas will continue to have stress with less precipitation. Temperatures will continue to be extremely hot where rain is too sporadic and light. A front may not make it down into the region later next week, but could increase rainfall potential and reduce temperatures anyway.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Temperatures have been milder this week, but will increase next week. Some small disturbances have brought minimal showers through the region this week. More isolated showers will be possible through the next week, but that will not be of much help either. It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): The pattern has been very active with almost daily showers and thunderstorms at least through the weekend. Some areas have gotten a boost in soil moisture while some areas got further into drought as they have been missed. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now. The rainfall could be a little less impressive next week, but could get busier again going into early August. For some areas, that would help crop fill, for others, it will probably be too late.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will get a boost this weekend as it moves through southern areas with scattered showers. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat, but could disrupt what remains of the safrinha harvest. Producers are also looking at the beginning of the wet season, which is about two months away.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front brought showers to northern areas this week, and another could bring more Friday and Saturday. Fronts may start to be more frequent going into August, which could benefit vegetative winter wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue across central and eastern Europe into next week and even western areas have been getting some occasional showers, too. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures are also trending milder going into the weekend, which will relieve some of the recent heat stress.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continue across the north and far west through the weekend and shift mainly to the far west for next week, largely favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs rain. Temperatures continue to be above normal, which is also causing stress.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system is moving through the country over the next couple of days, following one from earlier this week. Both systems are producing widespread, good rainfall that is helping to ease drought conditions and build soil moisture for vegetative wheat. We could see another system producing widespread rainfall this weekend into early next week as the weather pattern starts to become much more active. Crops are still vegetative and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages next month.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas of heavy rain fell on parts of the North China Plain earlier this week, helping with the drought situation. But this part of the region is forecast to be drier again through next week, which is still concerning as corn and soybeans go into their reproductive stages.

Systems will focus rainfall over southern China and also the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures falling Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers around Kansas. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday, mostly north and west. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers north Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers far south Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, above normal north and near to below normal south Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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