Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued active weather across the U.S., and patches of dryness in the Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Black Sea region and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST DURING THE WEEKEND

Limited northern showers and increasing temperatures are expected for Thursday and Friday in the Midwest. Another system moves through the weekend, with a very slow-moving front likely to linger into next week across the south. Another system is likely to move through Tuesday through Thursday, and another disturbance probably moves through next weekend, keeping shower chances going through mid-July and the start of pollination. Overall, mostly favorable conditions continue in many areas, though there is a mixture of wetter and drier areas throughout the region.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Wetness is still an issue for winter wheat harvest in some areas of the Central and Southern Plains, though the rainfall has been largely favorable for corn and soybean development. A front is stalled near the Red River, and showers continue there and south. Another system will move into the region on Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms likely into next week. Additional disturbances will follow it with more showers and storms likely as well.

SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will move into the Northern Plains on Thursday night and is likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Overall, active weather continues next week as well, with multiple disturbances moving through. Though some drought exists and more rain is needed, precipitation is generally coming at a good pace for the region, with drought concerns likely to ebb and flow between which areas get hit and which get missed the next few weeks.

FRONT MOVING INTO DELTA NEXT WEEK

The tail end of a front may bring isolated showers into the Delta for the next several days. Another front is likely to slide into the region and stall early next week, with more rainfall through next week, especially across the north. Many areas are still wet and in need of some drier weather, but that has been hard to come by. That could continue to have a negative effect on crop conditions.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DESPITE ACTIVE PATTERN

Several systems and disturbances are forecast to move through the Canadian Prairies through next week, but will only bring scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms, causing many areas to be missed. If that occurs across the south and east, it will be a larger concern for developing reproductive wheat and canola.

DRIER IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Some areas in southern Brazil have had a lot of rain the last few weeks, with fronts somewhat stalling or moving through at a frequent pace. Those fronts have also brought through some significantly cold air as well, producing areas of frost. Corn is mostly mature, with harvest increasing, and frost has likely not been much of a concern for winter wheat in the south either. But specialty crops will have taken on some damage from last week and early this week. Generally dry conditions are expected through next week, allowing some wet areas to recover.

SYSTEM BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS, COOLER TEMPERATURES TO EUROPE THIS WEEKEND

Hotter and drier conditions the last two weeks have been favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest in Europe, but are stressing some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system is moving through northern areas Thursday with some showers along its front. But a bigger system is forecast for this weekend into next week with more widespread showers, at least for northern areas. This system should also bring in more seasonable temperatures, at least for a few days. Though the rainfall will be welcomed, much more will be needed for spring-sewn crops, and the pattern is favoring hotter and drier conditions to return later next week.

BLACK SEA REGION CONTINUES TO HAVE LIMITED SHOWERS

Areas of isolated showers continued in the Black Sea region this week, mostly in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe are likely to produce more showers for western areas next week. With winter wheat maturing, drier conditions would be preferred for harvest, though corn and sunflower areas would enjoy more rainfall as soil moisture is still low in many areas.

AUSTRALIA IS STILL VERY DRY, SHOWERS MAY BE INCREASING

Many areas in Australia remain too dry, as winter wheat and canola try to build roots during the winter. Several systems will move through the country the next couple of weeks. Models have been increasing the forecast rainfall, and that will be critical as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in the next month or so.

CENTRAL CHINA SEEING BETTER RAINFALL

The pattern stays active in central China with periods of showers and thunderstorms through at least mid-July, helping to increase soil moisture and keep temperatures from becoming too extremely hot. That should improve conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Overall favorable conditions are found elsewhere throughout the country.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.