DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge that will try and anchor itself in the East going through next week. Multiple troughs and disturbances that are out in the West will continuously move through the country through next week, with the ridge trying to shift west toward the Mississippi Valley next weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Though the forecast may change with the specifics, a very active pattern is forecast for the next couple of weeks.

The U.S. and European models are showing a lot of differences in the pattern for next week. Though subtle in the upper levels, they are creating large differences in the details, especially with temperatures. I will blend the models together and focus on the ensembles, but note that large changes to the forecast may be needed next week.

For the outlook period, a system will likely move through later next week with scattered showers for a lot of the country's midsection. Another system may develop for next weekend with much of the same. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal ahead of the first system, but could fall below normal briefly behind it in some areas, especially north. Otherwise, the background ridge should keep temperatures more on the positive side of normal for early May.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...101 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...1 AT MT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...SPRINGFIELD, MO 2.28 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge that will try and anchor itself in the East going through next week. Multiple troughs and disturbances that are out in the West will continuously move through the country through next week, with the ridge trying to shift west toward the Mississippi Valley next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are showing a lot of differences in the pattern for next week. Though subtle in the upper levels, they are creating large differences in the details, especially with temperatures. I will blend the models together and focus on the ensembles but note that large changes to the forecast may be needed next week.

For the outlook period, a system will likely move through later next week with scattered showers for a lot of the country's midsection. Another system may develop for next weekend with much of the same. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal ahead of the first system but could fall below normal briefly behind it in some areas, especially north. Otherwise, the background ridge should keep temperatures more on the positive side of normal for early May.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the weekend as two systems move close by. More disturbances will move through next week with areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms as well. This favors the Dakotas more than Montana with heavier amounts, but all areas have potential for some needed rain. If rain is heavy, it could lead to some wetter fields and slow planting progress.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several storm systems are going to move through the region going into early May that will keep the region busy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain, and strong winds are all going to be on the table in the active pattern. That does include some chances at getting moisture into drier areas around Kansas that have seen drought increasing lately but could slow down planting progress in places that have better soil moisture at the moment like Nebraska. The gaps between storms will be short for at least the next 10 days.

Though not all areas will see rain falling from each storm, this will likely lead to some sort of delay in planting.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Frost occurred this week and may have caused some limited damage to winter wheat. Warmth is returning, but so is an active pattern that will bring multiple storm systems through going into early May. Heavy rain will spread out over western areas where it is needed, but also in portions of the east that will keep soils a little too wet. Gaps between storms will be short, leading to delays in planting either due to soaked fields or just wet conditions.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent heavy rain has kept soils wet and likely caused some producers to delay planting, though that had been off to a quick start in most areas anyway. It could get busy again as the storm track runs from the Southern Plains through the Midwest going through next week, bringing risks of thunderstorms, severe weather, and heavy rain through the region going into May. The region will be on the edge of the storm track though and may luck out with some more limited precipitation in areas that have become too wet. One front moving through on Monday and another next Thursday give the region good chances for widespread and heavy rain, though.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Mixed conditions over the winter and early spring have not been able to decrease drought much in the region, which is expansive. An active pattern through next week will bring rounds of showers through the region, but nothing overly heavy or widespread is forecast and may come with some areas of snow, which causes some delays to planting without providing much for soil moisture. Eastern areas have done better recently, though, and soil moisture there may be more favorable than for most of Alberta.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dry for the foreseeable future. That means that it will also be hot, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in the midst of corn and soybean harvest, is seeing fronts stall in the region that keep them wet through next week, which will disrupt the remaining harvest and make planting of winter wheat difficult.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will continue to waffle around the northern end of the country through the weekend before getting pushed northward next week. Areas of heavier rain will affect harvest and make it difficult going into May as well as lead to quality issues for a fairly good looking crop. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable, however.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Cool and wet conditions over the last week in Europe have produced frosts across the north that have had a limited effect on wheat, but other winter crops may have sustained more damage. That has likely slowed down early planting of summer crops as well. Areas in the northwest like France and the UK continue to be too wet while Spain and areas in the south have welcomed the rain. The storm track will favor western areas with rainfall this weekend as it dries out a bit farther east. That will also increase temperatures across most of the continent. But the rain will likely migrate eastward later next week and could be followed by another burst of colder air.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): The storm track has favored systems moving through western and central Ukraine at the expense of eastern Ukraine and most of southwestern Russia recently. Only streaks of light rain have moved through at times. That pattern continues through the weekend before getting drier everywhere next week. Hotter and drier conditions in the east have been unfavorable for wheat that is developing quickly after a warm and wet winter.

Crop conditions for winter grains are no doubt falling in the region while planting progress is likely quicker than normal. The region could see more widespread rain next weekend, but that is a ways off.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry conditions are favored in most areas for the next week, though western areas should see some rain early next week and some showers may develop along the east coast next week as well.

Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in mostly favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays to planting as the country awaits better soil moisture conditions for winter crop establishment. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers overnight. Temperatures near normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, well above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal Friday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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