DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Canada with a trough in the Midwest and another in the East Pacific. The Midwest trough will meander slowly eastward this week. The Pacific trough will slowly move into the West later this week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move into Canada next week and help to guide the western trough northeast with a storm system.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be well above normal east of the Rockies this weekend and at least through the first half of next week. A front will move into the Northern Plains and produce scattered showers this weekend. The front will move eastward later next week, but much of the precipitation is forecast to move through Canada and the northwestern Corn Belt.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...105 AT DEL RIO, TX

LOW MON...20 AT FOXPARK, WY AND DILLON, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT MONDAY...NEW ORLEANS, LA 2.45 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in Canada with a trough in the Midwest and another in the East Pacific. The Midwest trough will meander slowly eastward this week. The Pacific trough will slowly move into the West later this week and weekend.

Another trough will move into Canada next week and help to guide the western trough northeast with a storm system before digging into the West itself. The ridge will continue over the East.

The U.S. and European models do not agree with what the trough will do in Canada next week, otherwise they are pretty similar. I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be well above normal east of the Rockies. A front will continue in the Northern Plains and produce scattered showers. The front should move eastward later next week, but temperatures behind it are forecast to still be warm.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move in on Thursday and stall, producing scattered showers through the weekend and into next week. Recent and forecast rainfall may help the remaining areas of immature corn and soybeans, but is hampering the early harvest progress.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Drier weather should be in place most of the week, offering better conditions for harvest and winter wheat planting. Isolated showers may start developing Friday and continue into next week with a trough digging into the West. Showers would benefit winter wheat establishment where they occur, but soil moisture is still above normal and showers are not critically important just yet.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cutoff low-pressure system created waves of showers and thunderstorms for the western half of the region over the weekend, being heavy in a lot of areas, which will help somewhat with the drought situation and limiting the fall of water levels on the river systems.

The system will continue to slowly move east through the region this week, with some more limited areas of showers moving through. With how dry soils have been, delays to harvest and winter wheat planting will likely be short. Drier weather should develop by the end of the week and temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week, helping crops to mature.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Isolated showers moved through this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Drier weather will continue for the next week, forcing crops to maturity and favoring harvest.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front in the south will be forced into central Brazil later this week and stall there, producing areas of showers that should be the start of the wet season, which would be on time. Planting conditions are very good outside of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has had issues with flooding.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front across the north produced some showers over the weekend and will continue to do so Tuesday before it lifts north. Southern areas also have some limited showers moving through Tuesday as well. An overall drier pattern will follow through the weekend which should promote planting, but soils are still in need of moisture coming off of last year's historic drought. El Nino favors the country with better rainfall during the season, however, and another front will move through early-mid next week with the promise of more showers.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It will be dry for most of the week. Most areas in the continent have favorable soil moisture for winter wheat establishment currently. A front late this week may have a few showers in some areas across the north and east, another will move through early next week with limited showers as well. Current weather conditions favor fieldwork.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Dry weather continues through the week. A front will push through this weekend and early next week, but is forecast with only limited showers. Soil moisture has been falling for winter wheat establishment, an unfavorable situation, and will need more moisture soon for good root establishment before dormancy.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Occasional showers continue in central and northeastern areas for the next week. Gentle showers have favored maturing corn and soybeans in the northeast, and allowed for good soil moisture for winter wheat and canola establishment on the North China Plain.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It should be largely dry this week. Well-above normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop. A stronger cold front may move through this weekend and next week, breaking down the heat, but is not forecast to produce much rainfall. The forecast is not favorable for wheat or canola.

INDIA (RICE/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): The country has had a disappointing monsoon season with below-normal rainfall thanks to a building El Nino and a change in the pattern across the Indian Ocean. Showers have increased in recent weeks, but not enough to fill reservoirs for irrigating wheat and rice over the winter into next spring once the monsoon shuts down later over the next few weeks.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers far north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to well above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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