Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather in the U.S. and dwindling rains in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MIDWEST GETTING HEAVY RAIN

A string of systems will continue to push a cold front through the Midwest through Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation through the region yet again. Heavy rain near the Ohio River may induce flooding. Another system may come through Sunday and Monday with scattered showers as well as another later next week. A wet end to March is likely to lead to some delays for early fieldwork heading into April. Temperatures will be waffling heading into the new month as well.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY

A cold front continues to be slowly pushed southward through the Central and Southern Plains through Friday by one final storm system. Scattered precipitation across the region into Friday has the best chance at bringing precipitation to the southwestern drought areas, but also some severe potential to Oklahoma and Texas. There may be another system over the weekend that could bring meaningful showers to Kansas and Colorado's winter wheat areas. Otherwise, amounts look light for most of the drought-afflicted areas. Temperatures next week will need to be monitored for possible frost damage to southwestern areas where wheat is more advanced.

NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER

Temperatures remain below normal in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks, requiring higher inputs than normal for livestock and limiting snow melt. The main storm track will be to the south, with only isolated showers going into next week. A system may move through later next week with scattered showers.

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY FOR DELTA FRIDAY

A cold front will be pushed through the region by early Saturday, accompanied by precipitation that will keep area rivers high and fieldwork slow. The front will also bring a round of significant severe weather. Additional showers are possible Sunday into Monday as well as another system later next week.

WET SEASON RAINS DIMINISHING IN BRAZIL

Wet season showers are becoming much more isolated in central Brazil moving forward. The relative dryness will help increase the remaining safrinha corn planting. Soil moisture is good for the corn in the ground for now. But the coming dryness is not a good outlook if that continues into April without returning.

HEAVY RAIN TOO LATE IN ARGENTINA

A front continues to bring scattered showers, sometimes heavy, to northern Argentina through Saturday. Rain is likely too late for much of the damaged corn and soybean crops. However, stabilization will be likely. Temperatures will remain above normal through next week.

MOST OF EUROPE WITH GOOD WEATHER

A more-active weather pattern is bringing showers to the driest areas of France over the next week or longer, along with most of the rest of the Europe outside of Spain and Italy, which has lower chances for precipitation. The increased moisture in France will help to turn around winter wheat prospects, though dryness in Spain and Italy will not be favorable.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR WAR-TORN BLACK SEA

Dry and warm conditions this week will turn showery in the Black Sea region as a front brings showers through this weekend and into next week. Soil moisture is mostly good and the warmth will help winter wheat to develop. The wheat crop is in good shape overall where not affected by war.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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