DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West and a brief ridge in the Southeast. Another trough is situated up near Alaska that is sending another trough down the West Coast. The western trough will shift eastward this weekend while being replaced by the West Coast trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough will move eastward next week and be replaced again by another trough in the West which will move eastward later next week and weekend. The Southeast ridge will to poke up between each of these trough passages but should get squashed each time going into early April

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal across most of the country. Temperatures will rise east of the Rockies for a few days as a system builds in the West, but will fall again after it moves through later in the week and weekend. That system should produce widespread precipitation for a lot of areas east of the Rockies.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...12 BELOW ZERO AT MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...FLAGSTAFF, AZ 1.45 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the West and a brief ridge in the Southeast. Another trough is situated up near Alaska that is sending another trough down the West Coast. The western trough will shift eastward this weekend while being replaced by the West Coast trough. That piece will move eastward next week and be replaced again by another trough in the West which will move eastward later next week and weekend. The Southeast ridge will poke up between each of these trough passages but should get squashed each time going into early April.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal across most of the country. Temperatures will rise east of the Rockies for a few days as a system builds in the West but will fall again after it moves through later in the week and weekend. That system should produce widespread precipitation for a lot of areas east of the Rockies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Temperatures remain below normal for the next couple of weeks, requiring higher inputs than normal for livestock, and limiting snow melt. The main storm track will be to the south, with only isolated showers going into next week. A system may move through later next week with scattered showers.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A cold front continues to be slowly pushed southward through the region through Friday by one final storm system.

Scattered precipitation across the region into Friday has the best chance at bringing precipitation to the southwestern drought areas. There may be another over the weekend that could do so as well, but chances are low for meaningful precipitation outside of Kansas and Colorado's winter wheat areas. Temperatures will need to be monitored for possible frost damage to southwestern areas where wheat is more advanced.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A string of systems will continue to push a cold front through the region through Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation through the region yet again. Heavy rain near the Ohio River may induce flooding.

Another system may come through Sunday and Monday with scattered showers as well as another later next week. A wet end to March is likely to lead to some delays for early fieldwork heading into April. Temperatures will be waffling heading into the new month as well.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A cold front will be pushed through the region by early Saturday, accompanied by precipitation that will keep area rivers high and fieldwork slow. Additional showers are possible Sunday into Monday as well as another system later next week.

BRAZIL (CORN): Wet season showers are becoming much more isolated in central Brazil moving forward. The relative dryness will help to increase the remaining safrinha corn planting. Soil moisture is good for the corn in the ground for now. But the coming dryness is not a good outlook if that continues into April without returning.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to bring scattered showers, sometimes heavy, to northern areas through Saturday. Rain is likely too late for much of the damaged corn and soybean crops. However, stabilization will likely occur if the showers are as heavy as forecast. Temperatures will remain above normal through next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A more active weather pattern is bringing showers to the driest areas of France over the next week or longer, along with most of the rest of the continent outside of Spain and Italy, which has lower chances for precipitation. The increased moisture in France will help to turn around winter wheat prospects, though dryness in Spain and Italy will not be favorable.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dry and warm conditions will this week will turn showery as a front brings showers through this weekend and into next week. Soil moisture is mostly good in the region and the warmth will help winter wheat to develop. The wheat crop is in good shape overall where not affected by war.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS): Precipitation continues to be limited in the main winter wheat and oilseed areas on the North China Plain as crops are breaking dormancy. Shower chances are low overall and focused more to the south and more will be needed soon.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Monday.

East: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

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