DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada and a trough over north-central Canada and northeast Canada extending across northern Greenland. This is producing cool/cold temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the interior western U.S. A trough over the central and interior eastern U.S. A trough over southeast Canada and a ridge in the western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located in the western atlantic and off the west coast of Mexico, north-central Mexico and the southeast Gulf of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the U.S. and European models are in fair-good agreement during the outlook period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a weak trough across Alaska, northwest and north-central Canada and a ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough in the eastern U.S. and a ridge in the far western atlantic. The trough is expected to be far enough to the east to limit precipitation in the central U.S. except in the eastern Midwest at the beginning of the period. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them. During the 5 day period significant precipitation associated with this trough is expected to impact the northern Plains and western Midwest.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal west, near to below normal east during the next 5 days, near to below normal west, near to above normal east days 6-10. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation mostly below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...102 AT FALCON LAKE TX

LOW TUE...9 AT GRAND LAKE CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…JACKSON MS 3.67 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. The large-scale pattern will feature a ridge in the western US and a trough in the east. The trough is expected to be far enough to the east to limit precipitation in the central US except in the eastern Midwest at the beginning of the period. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them. During the 5 day period significant precipitation associated with this trough is expected to impact the northern Plains and western Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): More favorable harvest weather this week.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Heavy rain/snow late last week along with strong winds and a growing season ending freeze will damage crops. Additional significant precipitation is expected on Sunday.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Wet conditions over western areas along with a growing season ending freeze in some areas is unfavorable for late filling and maturing crops. Additional significant rainfall is expected on Sunday. More favorable conditions in the east.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: More rain would benefit emerging and developing winter wheat. Little is expected during the next 7 days.

BRAZIL (Soybeans): More rain is needed to support planting over central areas. Wet weather in the south may disrupt planting.

ARGENTINA (CORN): Some beneficial rain for corn planting this past weekend.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/SORGHUM/COTTON): More rain would benefit developing winter wheat in some southern areas. Drought conditions continue in the northeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Dry conditions. Temperatures variable.

East: Scattered light showers over southern and eastern areas. Temperatures above to much above normal.

Forecast:

West: Dry weather through Friday. Scattered light showers Saturday favoring southern areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Some moderate to heavy totals are possible. Dry conditions or just a little light precipitation in the north Monday. Dry weather Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, variable Tuesday.

East: Dry weather through Friday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers in the west Saturday. Dry weather Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. Some moderate to heavy totals are possible. Dry weather Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday, below normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Dry conditions or just a little light precipitation in the east. Temperatures below to much below normal.

Forecast: Dry weather through Thursday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Friday. Dry weather Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain or some mixed precipitation Sunday. Some lingering precipitation in the east Monday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain Tuesday. Temperatures variable Wednesday, above to much above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, variable Sunday, below normal Monday, variable Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures variable.

Forecast: Dry weather into Friday. Some light rain over eastern areas later Friday and early Saturday. Mostly dry weather Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures variable Wednesday, above to much above normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday, variable Sunday, below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

Brazil Soybeans…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Scattered light showers in Rio Grande do Sul. Mostly dry weather in Parana. Temperatures near to below normal in Rio Grande do Sul, above normal in Parana.

Forecast…

Near daily episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Tuesday. Temperatures variable through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso…

Mostly dry weather observed. Temperatures above to much above normal with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s in the north.

Forecast…

Dry conditions or just a few light showers through Friday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, variable Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Argentina Corn and Soybeans…

Light rain observed. Temperatures below to much below normal.

Forecast…

Dry conditions or just a little light rain Wednesday-Thursday. Dry weather Friday-Saturday. Light rain Sunday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain Monday. Dry weather Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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