USDA Weekly Crop Progress

This article was originally posted at 3:06 p.m. CDT on Monday, June 17. It was last updated at 11:05 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, June 18.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- Eight percent of the U.S. corn crop still wasn't planted as of Sunday, June 16, according to the latest USDA NASS Crop Progress report released on Monday. That means a substantial number of corn acres likely won't be planted this year, as the window for optimum yield potential has passed and the late-planting periods for crop insurance coverage in individual states are nearing an end.

NASS estimated that corn planting was 92% complete as of Sunday, up 9 percentage points from 83% the previous week. That put planting progress 8 percentage points behind both last year and the five-year average of 100%. This week's planting estimate came in at the high end of the pre-report estimate range of 89-92%, noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

However, it's important to note that the advancement in corn planting progress was at least partially due to some farmers opting for prevented planting, said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

A representative from the NASS Heartland Regional Field Office, which covers Illinois and Missouri, told Hultman that if farmers have only planted 75% of their intended acres but have basically done all the planting they can this year, then their progress gets pushed up near 100%, Hultman said.

Lance Honig, chief of the Crops Branch at NASS, said in an interview with USDA Radio Newsline on Monday that planting progress estimates represent the portion of the crop that is planted relative to farmers' planting intentions as of that week, not as of the March Prospective Plantings report or what they intended to plant at the start of the season.

"If you take that a step further, what that means is we will get to a 100% planted," Honig said. "That does not mean that farmers planted everything that they hoped to. But let's face it -- farmers will have to stop planting at some point, and at that point, progress will show 100%."

Notable planting progress in individual states compared to the five-year average included: Illinois at 88% complete versus the five-year average of 100%; Indiana at 84% versus 100%; Ohio at 68% vs. 100%; South Dakota at 78% vs. 100%; Wisconsin at 87% vs. 99%; Missouri at 89% vs. 99%; and Michigan at 84% planted vs. 98% average.

An estimated 79% of corn was emerged as of Sunday, 18 percentage points behind the five-year average of 97%. That was an improvement from last Monday's report when emergence was 31 percentage points behind average.

NASS estimated that 59% of corn that was emerged was in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week.

"States with some notable corn condition ratings were Missouri with 28% of the crop rated as good to excellent and both Illinois and Indiana with ratings of 50-51% good to excellent," Mantini said.

While corn planting progress has slowed, soybean planting progress continued at a steady pace last week. As of Sunday, an estimated 77% of the crop was planted, up 17 percentage points from 60% the previous week. Progress was 16 percentage points behind the five-year average of 93%, an improvement from last week's report when soybean planting was 32 percentage points behind average.

Nationwide, 55% of soybeans were emerged, 29 percentage points behind the average of 84%. Notable soybean emergence in individual states versus five-year averages included: Illinois with 50% of soybeans emerged vs. an average of 88%; Indiana 38% vs. 85%; Michigan 34% vs. 84%; Ohio 29% vs. 84%; and South Dakota 36% vs. 89%.

Spring wheat emerged, at 95%, was just 2 percentage points behind the five-year average of 97%. Two percent of the spring wheat crop was headed, behind last year's 8% and the five-year average of 12%.

Spring wheat condition for the portion of the crop that was emerged was rated 77% good to excellent, down 4 percentage points from 81% the previous week. North Dakota's spring wheat was rated 83% in good-to-excellent condition, and Minnesota's crop was rated 86% in good-to-excellent condition.

Winter wheat was 89% headed as of Sunday, behind last year's 94% and 6 percentage points behind the five-year average of 95%. Winter wheat harvest reached 8% complete as of Sunday, behind 25% last year and also behind the average of 20%.

Notable winter wheat harvest progress in individual states versus five-year averages included: Oklahoma with 16% of winter wheat harvested versus a five-year average of 56%; Texas at 42% vs. 56%; Illinois at 6% vs. 21%; and Kansas at 1% harvested vs. 12% average.

USDA estimated that 64% of winter wheat was in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, unchanged from 64% the previous week.

Sorghum was 69% planted, compared to 88% last year and a five-year average of 81%. Fifteen percent of sorghum was headed, near the five-year average of 16%. Oats emerged were at 94%, compared to 98% last year and an average of 99%. Thirty-three percent of oats were headed, behind the average of 54%.

Cotton planting was 89% complete, compared to 95% last year and the average of 94%. Cotton squaring, at 19%, was slightly ahead of the average pace of 18%. Rice was 94% emerged, compared to 100% last year and an average of 99%.

To view weekly crop progress reports issued by National Ag Statistics Service offices in individual states, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov/…. Look for the U.S. map in the "Find Data and Reports by" section and choose the state you wish to view in the drop-down menu. Then look for that state's "Crop Progress & Condition" report.

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Planted	92	83	100	100
Corn Emerged	79	62	97	97
Soybeans Planted	77	60	96	93
Soybeans Emerged	55	34	89	84
Winter Wheat Headed	89	83	94	95
Winter Wheat Harvested	8	4	25	20
Spring Wheat Emerged	95	85	97	97
Spring Wheat Headed	2	NA	8	12
Cotton Planted	89	75	95	94
Cotton Squaring	19	11	21	18
Sorghum Planted	69	49	88	81
Sorghum Headed	15	14	18	16
Barley Emerged	92	86	95	96
Barley Headed	2	NA	7	12
Oats Emerged	94	87	98	99
Oats Headed	33	28	50	54
Rice Emerged	94	87	100	99

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National Crop Condition Summary
(VP = Very Poor; P = Poor; F = Fair; G = Good; E = Excellent)
	This Week					Last Week					Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E	VP	P	F	G	E	VP	P	F	G	E
Corn	2	8	31	52	7	2	7	32	52	7	1	3	18	59	19
Winter Wheat	2	7	27	51	13	2	7	27	50	14	15	18	28	30	9
Spring Wheat	1	1	21	69	8	-	1	18	73	8	1	2	19	64	14
Cotton	4	11	36	42	7	7	8	41	37	7	5	21	36	33	5
Barley	1	6	17	63	13	-	2	14	68	16	1	2	13	72	12
Oats	2	4	28	58	8	2	4	29	57	8	4	3	23	58	12
Rice	1	6	30	51	12	1	6	32	52	9	-	3	23	60	14

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National Soil Moisture Condition - 48 States
(VS = Very Short; SH = Short; AD = Adequate; SR = Surplus)
	This Week				Last Week				Last Year
	VS	SH	AD	SR	VS	SH	AD	SR	VS	SH	AD	SR
Topsoil Moisture	2	10	67	21	1	8	66	25	10	24	58	8
Subsoil Moisture	2	8	68	22	1	7	66	26	10	23	60	7

Anthony Greder can be reached at anthony.greder@dtn.com

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