Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Slowly improving conditions for planting in the Corn Belt and Northern Plains, heavy rains Thursday in the winter wheat belt, and some very heavy rains for the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

SOME IMPROVEMENT IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for shower and rain threats during the next five days to appear limited in coverage. Rainfall of more than a 1/2 inch will mainly occur in northwest and far west areas and from Indiana and Michigan eastward. Some improvement to conditions for planting is possible in areas not mentioned. The six- to 10-day rainfall also does not look very heavy. These are slowly improving conditions for planting.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, temperatures for most areas Friday and for eastern areas Saturday, as well, will be above normal. Light-to-moderate showers develop in the west and spread east Friday and Saturday, followed by much cooler weather. Rainfall up to a 1/2 inch is expected, with some heavier amounts in the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Drier weather follows. These are slowly improving conditions for planting corn and soybeans, and favorable conditions for developing spring grains.

WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Central and Southern Plains, wet weather and conditions will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Quality issues can be expected. Wet conditions will affect the early harvest. Wet weather and wet conditions will continue to delay and disrupt planting of corn, soybeans and sorghum. Lower temperatures return to the region during the six- to 10-day period, possibly much cooler. Thursday, a slow-moving low pressure system brought heavy rains and some flash flooding in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, with 1 1/2 to 2 inches of rain in the winter wheat belt, although some areas got as much as 4 to 6 inches in a short time period. Cooler weather returns to the region during the six- to 10-day period, possibly much cooler.

HEAVY RAINS FOR SOUTHEAST U.S.

Episodes of rain, showers and thunderstorms will be in the Southeast region during the next five to seven days. Rainfall will be heavy to possibly very heavy. In most cases, the rain is a welcome change from recent heat and dryness, however local flooding is likely to occur.

SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR CANADA'S PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, the heaviest rainfall potential during the next 24-48 hours appears to be over southwest and central Alberta, northwest and southeast Saskatchewan and Manitoba. These areas should see 1/4 to 1 inch and isolated heavier. Southeast Alberta, southwest and central Saskatchewan may see only light showers during this period, possibly mostly less than 1/4 inch. Rain is needed in most areas to support favorable development of spring wheat and canola. So, while some might benefit from this rainfall, others will see only limited relief. The next chance for significant showers is likely to be about a week from Friday and is somewhat uncertain.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL HARVEST TREND

There are no significant concerns for filling and maturing second-crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil. Drier weather will also improve conditions for maturing corn and harvesting in Parana.

HOT, DRY IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, there are mostly favorable conditions for crops in western Ukraine due to generous May rainfall and no significant hot weather. Showers have recently helped improve conditions in southern and eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, but due to very warm weather, improvement was limited. These areas look to be drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days. A variable temperature pattern with added rain will favor spring wheat in northern Kazakhstan and southern Siberia during this period.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR AUSTRALIA

The western wheat areas of Australia are expected to see episodes of showers and rain during the next five to seven days. Rainfall may become heavy.

Conditions are improving for late planting and early developing winter wheat in the area. Rain may also increase again in southern South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales early next week. Favorable growing conditions continue in these areas. Dryness is still of concern in central to northern NSW and southern Queensland.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR NORTH CHINA

In North China, it's a mostly favorable weather pattern for development of early planted corn and soybeans with some periodic delays to seasonal fieldwork due to wet and cool conditions at times.

RAIN IN CENTRAL CHINA

Central China saw heavy rain and thunderstorms move into south and central areas during this week, except in areas of local flooding. This might favor late-filling wheat and developing summer crops. It would be unfavorable for mature rapeseed and early harvesting, and it would delay planting of summer crops.

MONSOON UPDATE IN INDIA

As of June 7, the Indian Met Department showed the leading edge of the monsoon over southern of Sri Lanka. This is running at least 10 days late. However, scattered thunderstorms have occurred north of this line over southern and east-central India during the past two days. This should help condition soils for planting summer crops in the region. Satellite pictures show a buildup of cloud cover and showers in the northern Bay of Bengal and in the southern Arabian Sea as well as through the Indian Ocean. This is a sign that rains will increase in the area fairly soon.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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