Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Wet conditions in the Corn Belt, some heavy rains from the Southern Plains to mid-Atlantic region, and tropical moisture moving into Texas later today, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over southwestern Gulf of Mexico are currently disorganized. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before moving inland later today or tonight. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. In Texas, areas affected by the system will get 4-6 inches of rain, although there could be isolated areas receiving 6 inches or more of rain. The tropical moisture is forecast to move over southeast Texas and Louisiana within the next one-to-three days, into the Delta at the end of this week and into the southeast United States early next week.

MIXED CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for limited rainfall in the northwest Midwest during the next seven days that will allow an increase in corn and soybean planting. Wet weather over southern and eastern areas will keep planting slow. These are the areas that are furthest behind normal.

DRIER NORTHERN PLAINS TREND

In the Northern Plains, above-normal temperatures and only light rain will allow planting of corn and soybeans while favoring development of spring wheat and oats for three to four more days. Heavier rains and lower temperatures follow, which would again delay spring fieldwork.

WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Central and Southern Plains, wet weather and conditions will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Quality issues can be expected. Wet conditions will affect the early harvest. Wet weather and wet conditions will continue to delay and disrupt planting of corn, soybean and sorghum. Lower temperatures return to the region during the six- to 10-day period.

HOT, DRY FOR SOUTHEAST U.S.

In the Southeastern U.S., hot, mostly dry weather, continues during the next three to four days. After that, it appears likely that rain and more seasonal temperatures will develop, possibly enhanced by tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR CANADA'S PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, later this week, there appears to be a good chance for needed rains to occur in north and central Alberta, north and southeast Saskatchewan and in Manitoba. This will favor development of crops and ease dryness concerns. Lower temperatures follow, which may need to be watched. In southern Alberta, southwest and central Saskatchewan, the rain forecast is not as certain. There should be showers, but it is not certain there will be enough to ease concerns. This will be watched.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL HARVEST TREND

There are no significant concerns for filling and maturing second-crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil. Soil moisture supports filling crops. Hot, dry weather favors maturing crops. Rain in Parana may slow the harvest of second-crop corn and the planting of winter wheat in that area.

HOT, DRY IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, there are mostly favorable conditions for crops in western Ukraine due to generous May rainfall and no significant hot weather. Showers have recently helped improve conditions in southern and eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, but due to very warm weather, improvement was limited. These areas look to be drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days. A variable temperature pattern with added rain will favor spring wheat in northern Kazakhstan and southern Siberia during this period.

MIXED OUTLOOK FOR AUSTRALIA

The eastern wheat areas of Australia have recently had some light rain but should be drier during the next seven days. The western and southern wheat areas are expected to see increased rainfall during the next one to five days. There are improving conditions for wheat.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR NORTH CHINA

In North China, it's a mostly favorable weather pattern for development of early planted corn and soybeans with some periodic delays to seasonal fieldwork due to wet and cool conditions at times.

RAIN IN CHINA

China's wheat and corn area may see needed rain within the next two to five days, especially central and south areas. This would favor late-filling wheat and developing summer crops. It would be unfavorable for mature rapeseed and early harvesting as well as planting for summer crops.

MONSOON UPDATE IN INDIA

As of June 2, the Indian Met Department showed the leading edge of the monsoon still just south of Sri Lanka. This is running at least 10 days late. Satellite pictures have shown a significant decrease in rain coverage across the Bay of Bengal during the past 24 hours while the activity continues in the south and a little of the central Arabian Sea. Significant showers occurred in south and east India and Bangladesh during the past 72 hours, out ahead of where the monsoon front is located.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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