Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A wet pattern in the Corn Belt this week, some heavy rains for the Delta late in the week, a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, and a good chance of rain for Canada's Prairies in the six-to-10-day outlook, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Meteorologists are keeping an eye on the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where a broad area of low pressure could become a tropical cyclone in the next few days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system's track is expected to affect southern and eastern Mexico, then later this week move through southeast Texas and into the Delta area and possibly southeast Corn Belt. There is still uncertainty, but it bears watching.

WET PATTERN FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for limited rainfall in the northwest Midwest during the next seven days that will allow an increase in corn and soybean planting. Wet weather over southern and eastern areas will keep planting slow. These are the areas that are furthest behind normal. Today, in the western Midwest, there are scattered light-to-moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier amounts favoring west and south areas; this will affect east and south locations Tuesday and south locations again Wednesday. For the Eastern Corn Belt, it's mostly dry today. Light-to-locally-moderate showers are expected to favor western and northern areas during Tuesday or Tuesday night. Light-to-moderate showers with locally heavier amounts favoring central and southern areas during Wednesday. Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers favor west-central and south areas Thursday and Friday. Scattered showers and thundershowers for expected much of the region during Saturday. In the six-to-10-day outlook, rainfall is expected to average near to above normal southern and eastern areas, near to below normal northwest.

DRIER NORTHERN PLAINS TREND

In the Northern Plains, the drier period that began late last week and continued during the weekend will continue early this week. This is likely to allow increasing planting with planting progress for wheat and oats approaching normal and improving progress for corn and soybeans. Wet weather returns to the area and then cooler conditions follow later this week. This will again slow seasonal fieldwork in the area.

WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Central and Southern Plains, wet weather and conditions will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Quality issues can be expected. Wet conditions will affect the early harvest. Wet weather and wet conditions will continue to delay and disrupt planting of corn, soybean and sorghum. Lower temperatures return to the region during the six-to-10-day period.

STRESSFUL SOUTHEAST DRYNESS

In the southeastern U.S., hot, mostly dry weather, continues during the next three-to-five days. After that, there's less hot weather and more showers. Rain is needed to replenish soil moisture and to favor early development of crops following the recent hot, dry period.

SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR CANADA'S PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, the very dry areas of central Saskatchewan are likely to remain mostly dry during the next three to four days. There appears to be some chance for needed showers to occur this coming Friday or Saturday. This will be followed by a return to much cooler weather in the area. If verified, the rain will help ease dryness concerns somewhat, but it would not be enough rain to sustain crop development for long, more will be needed. The cooler weather that follows may need to be watched. The eastern part of Saskatchewan and Manitoba have a somewhat better chance for heavier rain to occur Friday through Sunday.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL HARVEST TREND

There's no significant concerns for filling and maturing second crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil. Soil moisture supports filling crops. Hot, dry weather favors maturing crops. Rain in Parana may slow the harvest of second-crop corn and the planting of winter wheat in that area.

HOT, DRY IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, South and east Ukraine and south Russia are expected to see near-to-mostly-above-normal temperatures and near-to-mostly-below normal rainfall during the next 10 days. Showers occurred through the western part of this area during the weekend. Increasing stress is expected for later-developing wheat and early developing corn and sunflowers during the period.

MORE EASTERN AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

In eastern Australia wheat areas, the southern Queensland area had some light rain during the weekend while key growing areas in New South Wales continued somewhat drier. The region likely continues to see below-normal rainfall during the next 10 days with low temperatures during the five-day period and a warmer trend following.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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