Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- An active weather pattern in the Midwest continuing to delay or slow planting and fieldwork, and possible damage to the winter wheat crop in the Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast again calls for excessive rainfall to disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting in the Midwest. Corn planting progress, as of last Monday, was the lowest on record for the date. Some corn acreage will likely not get planted.

COLD, WET PATTERN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, wet weather and conditions disrupts and delays spring wheat and corn planting. Some acreage may not get planted. Low temperatures slow germination and early development. Some improvement may become possible during the six- to 10-day period.

WET IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, wet weather and conditions will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Excessive rains and damaging hail and winds may mean losses to wheat, especially in hardest-hit areas of Oklahoma where wheat is maturing. Wet conditions will affect the early harvest. Quality issues can be expected. Rain delays and disrupts planting of corn, soybean and sorghum. An exception to these concerns is in east Colorado where dryness is more of a concern.

HOT, DRY IN SOUTHEAST

In the southeastern U.S., hot, dry weather continues during the next five to seven days. This is increasing stress to developing crops. A somewhat weaker ridge in the longer-range outlook may lead to cooler, dry weather, but this is somewhat uncertain.

SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS IN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies had light-to-moderate showers in parts of the region during the weekend, especially in Alberta and also in southern Manitoba. This gives improving conditions for early development. Rain is still needed in key growing areas of central Saskatchewan. Warmer or much warmer weather this week will favor development in areas with adequate soil moisture.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL CONDITIONS

In Brazil, there are no significant concerns for filling and maturing second-crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias. Soil moisture supports filling crops. Warm, dry weather favors maturing crops. Hot, dry weather favors maturing crops.

DRIER, HOTTER WEEK AHEAD IN UKRAINE

South and east Ukraine and south Russia had showers during the weekend favoring developing wheat and early planted corn. The area looks to be drier and somewhat hotter than normal during the next seven to possibly 10 days. This will reduce soils moisture for crops and increase stress, somewhat.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

In eastern Australia wheat areas, New South Wales and southern Queensland look to continue dry during the next 10 days. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period. Soil moisture will continue to diminish and stress to early developing wheat will increase.

HEAVY RAINS IN NORTH CHINA

In north China, there was generally moderate-to-heavy rain early last week. There was a second heavy rain event during this past weekend, favoring central and south areas. This will provide adequate-to-surplus soil moisture in key growing areas for corn and soybeans, but it will also delay and halt planting of these crops.

WEEKEND RAINFALL IN NORTH CHINA PLAIN

The North China Plain has turned very hot and dry at the end of last week but did see a few thunderstorms and cooler weather during the weekend. The generally drier weather pattern continues this week. There are no significant concerns for wheat, but some concern for early development of spring-planted crops. Weekend rainfall in rapeseed areas may be unfavorable for the maturing crop and could delay the harvest.

HOT IN INDIA

As it typical for May, India is hot to very hot at this time, ahead of the developing Monsoon flow. Pre-monsoon showers have occurred at times. The monsoon appears to be developing over the Indian Ocean south of India and in the southeast to south-central areas of the Bay of Bengal.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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