Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A stormy pattern with heavy rains and severe weather in the Midwest, and possible crop damage in the Plains' wheat belt, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast again calls for excessive rainfall to disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting in the Midwest. Corn planting progress, as of May 20, was the lowest on record for this date. Some corn acreage will likely not get planted. Episodes of rain and thunderstorms will continue for at least another five days, possibly longer, centering on the western and northern Midwest. Some improvement may become possible during the six- to 10-day period, but this is uncertain.

COLD, WET PATTERN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, wet conditions remain disruptive to spring wheat and corn planting. Some acreage may not get planted. Low temperatures slow germination and early development. Some improvement may become possible during the six- to 10-day period.

WET AND COOL IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, wet weather will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Excessive rains and damaging hail and winds may mean losses to wheat, especially in hardest-hit areas of Oklahoma where wheat is maturing. Rain delays and disrupts planting of corn, soybean and sorghum. An exception to these concerns is in east Colorado where dryness has been reported, and cold mornings may have affected heading winter wheat there.

WARM AND DRY IN DELTA

The Delta will have mostly dry and warm-to-somewhat-hot weather that will improve conditions for planting. Early developing crops will benefit from favorable soil moisture, except in areas of local flooding.

DRY IN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies have drier conditions that allow planting through northwest and central areas this week, while areas closer to the U.S. border and in Manitoba may see rain slowing fieldwork. Rain will be needed to ensure favorable germination and early development of recently planted crops in many areas.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL CONDITIONS

In Brazil, there are no significant concerns for filling and maturing second-crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias. Soil moisture supports filling crops. Warm, dry weather favors maturing crops. Rain in Parana and showers and cool conditions into Mato Grosso do Sul may, for a time, be somewhat unfavorable for maturing corn but, in general, should favor the filling crop.

MIXED CONDITIONS IN UKRAINE

Belarus and western Ukraine have been fairly wet recently, likely slowing spring fieldwork. South and East Ukraine have been drier. Showers and rain moved into eastern Ukraine during the last part of the week. These are favorable conditions for winter wheat. There's some delay to planting summer crops, although key growing areas for corn and sunflower are in areas that have not been too wet recently. Drier, hotter weather may develop over the eastern Ukraine during the six- to 10-day period.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

In eastern Australia wheat areas, New South Wales and southern Queensland look to continue dry during the next 10 days. Temperatures will be above normal through five days and then will be lower. Soil moisture will continue to diminish and stress to early developing wheat will increase.

MORE RAIN, COOLER FOR NORTH CHINA

In north China, there was generally moderate-to-heavy rain during the weekend and Monday. This will provide adequate-to-surplus soil moisture in key growing areas for corn and soybeans, but it will also delay and halt planting of these crops. Drier, hotter weather Thursday and Friday will be followed by more rain and cooler weather during the weekend and early next week.

COLDER CONDITONS AHEAD IN NORTH CHINA PLAIN

The North China Plain has turned very hot at the end of this week while remaining mostly dry. Filling wheat and maturing rapeseed have adequate soil moisture and irrigation, so there is little concern for these crops. Dry weather favors the planting effort for corn, soybeans, rice and cotton, while hot, dry weather depletes available soil moisture. A cold front should break the heat wave this weekend, with thunderstorms expected, but overall, it's a drier weather pattern with above-normal temperatures that will continue a little while longer.

EUROPE SEES MORE RAIN

A recent increase in rain through east-central and southeast Europe will improve conditions for winter wheat after winter dryness. Rain helps recharge soil moisture for planting summer crops in the area, but also delays seasonal fieldwork. Northeast areas had recently been drier, but last week this area had needed rain.

HOT IN INDIA

As it typical for May, India is hot to very hot at this time, ahead of the developing Monsoon flow. Pre-monsoon showers have occurred at times. The monsoon appears to be developing over the Indian Ocean south of India and in the southeast to south-central areas of the Bay of Bengal.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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