DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge to the north of Alaska. A weak ridge over western Canada. A trough over north-central and eastern Canada extending into western Greenland and some ridging over eastern Greenland. This is producing variable temperatures over western and central Canada, cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific extending into the northwest U.S. A trough over the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico. A weak ridge over the south-central U.S. A weak trough over the north-central U.S. and a trough along and off the east coast of the U.S. Subtropical high pressure is located over the north-central atlantic and central and southern Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 8 days. Fair agreement days 9-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska. A trough over western Canada and a ridge over north-central and northeast Canada extending across Greenland. This will produce cool/cold temperatures over much of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific. A trough over the western U.S. A ridge over the southern and eastern U.S. extending into the western atlantic and a trough over southeast Canada. This will be an active rainfall pattern for the Midwest and Plains as disturbances move out of the trough in the west tracking up and over the ridge in the east which will supply gulf moisture into these areas. It will be a less active pattern over the southern U.S. due to some ridging. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them in the Midwest and Plains, warm in the southern U.S.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...96 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...1 AT CASA VIEJA MEADOWS CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…BOSTON MA 1.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, fair to good agreement during the last couple of days of the period.

The key features during the outlook period will be high latitude blocking with upper level ridging and above normal heights over the Gulf of Alaska, Alaska, far north Canada and central to north Greenland as well as the west Hemisphere side of the arctic circle. Strong trough centers are indicated in northwest Canada and the northwest Atlantic. A fairly strong jet stream runs south of these northern troughs and is mainly in the northern US. The US model is a little further north with this jet stream, especially in the eastern Midwest area. We also note a weak southern branch trough in the southwest US and some ridging over the southeast to the east-central US at times.

The southwest trough when also combined with the southeast ridge is likely to keep a flow of Gulf moisture moving northward over the plains region.

Disturbances moving from the southwest trough east-northeast over the plains, the west and north Midwest may tap into this Gulf moisture at times. The cooler weather north of the northern US jet stream may also interact with the moisture and disturbances moving across the plains. This remains an active weather pattern. However, there is some chance that the wettest weather may shift a little north and west from where it has been do the somewhat stronger southeast US ridge. This means a good chance for drier, warmer weather in the southeast US, some chance this drier weather may also include the Delta and an outside chance it might include the Ohio river valley as well. It also means a high risk for heavier rains in the western and northern Midwest, some risk for heavier rains in the northern plains and a continued active weather pattern in the central and south plains region.

One caution as it concerns the Delta and the Ohio river valley areas. While it might turn drier during the 6-10 day period in these areas, it is likely to continue wet during the 5 day period prior to this outlook period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES: Some increase in shower activity is likely during the next 6 to 10 days, especially through southern and eastern areas. It is also likely to be cooler for a time. This means cool and damp to wet weather which likely means delays to early seasonal fieldwork.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Heavy rains in south and east areas during the weekend and rain early this week in northwest to north-central areas likely means delays for seasonal fieldwork. The 6-10 day period also looks to be somewhat wetter as well with a variable temperature pattern. Further delays are expected.

DELTA (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON): Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to redevelop in the region during the next few days. This will likely mean further delays to seasonal fieldwork and planting. Some chance it might turn drier during the 6-10 day period but there is some uncertainty in this outlook.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Adequate to surplus soil moisture for developing winter wheat. Mostly favorable conditions, except in areas of local severe weather or heavy downpours. Texas and Oklahoma winter wheat are likely to experience locally heavy rainfall and local severe flooding during the next 24 to 48 hours.

WESTERN FSU (WINTER WHEAT): Winter wheat is in vegetative growth stages at this time. Dryness had been of some concern in eastern Ukraine during the early spring period. Moderate to locally heavy rain occurred through much of the Ukraine last week. This eased concerns for crops in the area. Drier weather continues this week. It may turn somewhat wetter again early next week.

INDIA/PAKISTAN (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Widespread moderate to heavy shower and thunderstorm activity and much cooler weather moved across the Pakistan and into north India winter crop belt early last week. This may mean delays to the final harvest efforts for wheat and rapeseed but it will provide moisture for early planted summer crops in the area. However, most summer crops are planted in north India as seasonal rains increase during June and July.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms occurred during the weekend period from RGDS northward through Parana and into MGDS. This likely impacts the soybean harvest, especially in RGDS. Second crop corn in Parana and MGDS may be impacted as well due strong wind gusts and local flooding of fields. The region may see additional rain or thunderstorms late this week or this coming weekend. Mato Grosso had scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers during the past 24 hours. This will maintain favorable moisture for development of second crop corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT/COTTON): Heavy thunderstorms occurred in north Argentina and Paraguay during the weekend. This is reported to have caused severe flooding and is likely to have impacted the harvest of soybeans and cotton. Some loss to unharvested cotton appears likely. No significant concerns, at this time, for mature crops or harvesting in major growing areas of Cordoba, Santa Fe or Buenos Aires.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Another late season round of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred during the weekend and Monday. This is likely to delay and disrupt the harvests for maize and sugarcane and could lead to losses. Flooding may be occurring in areas of heaviest rainfall.

CHINA (SOYBEANS): Key growing areas for soybeans in Heilongjiang China saw moderate precipitation last week. This will help recharge soil moisture for planting soybeans next month.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Moderate to locally heavy showers and rain developed through key winter wheat areas of the North China Plain early this month. This included key growing areas of Henan and Shandong. This will be highly favorable to vegetative and reproductive wheat and timely, following the typically dry winter period... especially in northern areas. Rain mostly favors reproductive winter rapeseed and planting for single crop rice near the Yangtze river. Frequent rain also favors developing early double crop rice in southern China.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): More rain is still needed to ease drought conditions in east Australia wheat areas, despite good rains late in March. Showers are in the area today but are likely to miss the key growing areas. The longer range outlook suggests some chance for showers or rain to develop later in the 10 day period but this is considered somewhat uncertain. This chance for rain also includes southeast South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales wheat areas. There does not appear to be any significant chances for needed rains in West Australia during the next 10 days.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Light to moderate showers with locally heavier favoring north and east areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal north, above to well above normal central and south. Highs yesterday ranged from 46 to 81F, coolest northwest Iowa, warmest southeast Iowa.

East: Moderate to locally heavy showers and rain through northwest Illinois and much of Wisconsin. Light rain or showers in northwest Illinois and portions of Michigan. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal yesterday. Highs mostly 74 to 81F yesterday.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry today. A little light rain or drizzle in northern Missouri tonight. Dry tomorrow. A little light rain or drizzle favoring northwest areas tomorrow night. Dry or with only a few light showers during Thursday.

Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Thursday.

Dry or with only a few light showers during the daytime hours of Friday.

Episodes of showers, thundershowers and rain Friday night into Saturday and later Sunday into Monday. Rainfall is likely to become moderate to heavy, especially in areas of thunderstorms. Temperatures average near normal Friday, below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

East: Dry or with only a few light showers in the east and south today into tonight. Light to moderate showers and possibly rain through southern and east-central areas Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, variable tomorrow, near to above normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Light to moderate showers or rain favoring northern areas Saturday into Saturday night. Drier again Sunday. Rain or showers and thunderstorms during Monday, possibly favoring western and northern areas.

Temperatures average above normal Friday, below normal Saturday and Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights…

Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near to below normal for the morning lows yesterday, above normal for the afternoon highs.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Light to locally moderate showers favoring western and southern areas Friday or during Friday night. Dry or with only a little light rain or drizzle, favoring eastern areas, during Saturday. Light to locally moderate rain or snow showers during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Moderate to heavy rain, showers and thunderstorms from the southern and eastern portion of the Texas Panhandle through southwest and central Oklahoma during the night...heaviest in southwest Oklahoma. Light rain or showers elsewhere in the panhandle and Oklahoma and possibly into southern Kansas during this time. Little elsewhere in the central/southern plains region.

Temperatures averaged mostly above normal for the morning lows, near to mostly below normal for the afternoon highs.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Rain, showers and thundershowers favoring eastern and southern Oklahoma and northern Texas today, central and east areas of north Texas and possibly southeast Oklahoma tomorrow. Showers during Thursday favoring southeast and north areas. These look to be light showers. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal north and central areas and below normal south tomorrow, near to above normal Thursday.

Scattered light to locally moderate showers favoring north and east-central areas Friday and again Sunday into Monday. Drier during Saturday. Temperatures average above normal during this period, although extreme north areas may be somewhat cooler at times.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Rainfall near to above normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

Joel Burgio