Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A major storm and blizzard continuing to hit the Midwest and Plains, heavy rains for the Delta this weekend, a new storm for the eastern Midwest and Delta next week, and favorable conditions for South America, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

MAJOR BLIZZARD/STORMS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a blizzard and major storm to affect the north-central portion of the United States Thursday. Heavy snow and strong winds are creating blizzard conditions and leading to travel and transport to be at a standstill from the west-central Plains northeast through South Dakota, eastern North Dakota and much of Minnesota. Storm total snowfall is expected to average 12-24 inches in the hardest-hit areas of South Dakota, west and north Minnesota.

Significant snow totals also reach to eastern North Dakota and last night snow and wind caused blizzard conditions in Wyoming, and west and central Nebraska.

Blizzard conditions and much colder weather greatly increases stress to livestock in these areas, especially as temperatures drop behind this storm. The balance of the western Midwest will see showers and possibly thundershowers early today.

MAJOR RAIN, SNOW AND WIND FOR MIDWEST

The major rain and wind event is likely to continue today for the northwest areas of the Midwest. This affects travel and transport in the region. This is likely to lead to an increased risk for a new surge in river levels in the region, especially the middle Missouri River and the upper Mississippi River. Showers and thunderstorms develop in the east late today and tonight. Additional moderate-to-heavy rainfall will affect the south and east areas later in the five-day period and again during the six- to 10-day period.

A surface low forms over the southeast Plains and tracks northeast from there next Wednesday and Thursday. This system is likely to cause a new round of moderate-to-heavy precipitation from the southeast Plains, across the Delta, the south and east Midwest. Severe weather is also likely.

Significant fieldwork delays will likely continue through the end of this month due to an active rainfall pattern.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy snow and blizzard conditions affects the southern and east portion of the Northern Plains crop belt today. Heavy snow, 6-12 inches and possibly more, may reach to southeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota as well. This will be melted precipitation totals of 1 inch or more in South Dakota and extreme southeast North Dakota, 0.50 to 1.00 inch in northeast North Dakota. This is somewhat farther north than previously expected. It now looks likely that this storm will add to the level of the Red River, as the snow melts during the coming days.

BLIZZARD AFFECTING CENTRAL PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, there is adequate soil moisture for developing winter wheat. Blizzard conditions continue today in west and central Nebraska due to snow and blowing snow. Northeast Colorado and possibly northwest Kansas may see blizzard conditions at times due mostly to blowing snow. This will put significant stress on livestock. Areas outside of these locations will see strong, damaging winds due to this storm, but little precipitation. This may mean blowing dust for many areas.

HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN DELTA

Signs point to another extreme rain event in the Delta this weekend. We now see yet another moderate or heavy rain event for the region during the six- to 10-day period. These systems will likely include severe weather. The region has mostly surplus soil moisture with a significant risk of severe flooding. Delays to seasonal fieldwork appear likely.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR BRAZIL

For Brazil, showers will redevelop in Mato Grosso during the next few days. Recent showers and lower temperatures will favor development of second-crop corn and later development of sugarcane and coffee in central Brazil crop areas. Drier weather from Parana southward to Rio Grande do Sul helps improve conditions for the harvest of soybeans, after the rains in that area late last week.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Argentina's key soybean and corn areas will have mostly dry weather this week. Conditions are favorable for maturing crops and harvesting. Showers may develop late this weekend into Monday. Showers may at times occur during the six- to 10-day period. Showers will help recharge soil moisture and favor early development of the winter wheat crop when planted, while causing only minor delays to the harvest of summer crops.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS FOR NORTH CHINA

The North China Plain developed moderate-to-locally-heavy showers and thundershowers through key winter crop areas, including Henan and Shandong, early this week. This will be highly favorable to reproductive wheat and timely, following the typically dry winter period, especially in northern areas.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(AG)

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