DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed up 1/4 cent per bushel and December corn was up 1/4 cent. May soybeans closed up 2 cents and November soybeans were up 1/2 cent. May K.C. wheat closed down 5 3/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 5 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was down 7 3/4 cents.

The June U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.437 at 96.720. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 53.55 points at 25,679.14. April gold is down $19.60 at $1,290.80, May silver is down $0.30 at $15.00 and May copper is up $0.0155 at $2.8785. May crude oil is down $0.19 at $59.22, May heating oil is down $0.0117, May RBOB is down $0.0103 and May natural gas is unchanged.

Corn:

May corn ended up a quarter-cent at $3.74 Thursday, a quiet day of light volume trading ahead of Friday's USDA reports. Thursday's weather map was mostly dry for the central U.S., except for some rain in Nebraska and Kansas. Heavier rain amounts are expected the next seven days from Missouri to Ohio, while lighter expected amounts in the northern Midwest at least should not add to snowmelt-related flooding concerns. With river traffic difficult, FOB corn prices at the Gulf are 74 cents above the May futures contract and 30 cents above FOB prices in Brazil. Early Thursday, USDA said 35.6 million bushels (mb) of corn were sold last week and 37.8 mb were shipped, well below the 53 mb needed each week to reach USDA's export estimate of 2.375 billion bushels (bb). Friday's report is expected to estimate corn plantings at 91.2 million acres (ma) and March 1 corn stocks at 8.34 bb, but surprises have been known to happen in March. For now, May futures are staying below their 100-day average at $3.83, while cash corn prices are holding steady. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.46 Wednesday, priced 27 cents below the May contract and still near its highest price in nine months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.44 after lower-than-expected inflation data was released from Germany. Early Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department said real GDP was up 0.5% in the fourth quarter and up 2.9% for all of 2018, a little less than expected.

Soybeans:

After dropping 19 cents the past two days, May soybeans were quieter Thursday, ending up 2 cents at $8.89 1/2. Fundamentally, there is not a lot happening to support higher soybean prices lately and Thursday's export sales numbers didn't offer much help. USDA said 6.7 mb of soybeans were sold last week and 34.6 mb were shipped, close to the shipment pace needed each week to reach USDA's export estimate of 1.875 bb. Egypt and Netherlands were the top two buyers with China noticeably absent. U.S.-China trade talks resume Thursday and Friday in Beijing. Also of interest to soybean traders, China cancelled a prior sale of 1,000 metric tons (mt) of U.S. pork last week in what looks like a bit of gamesmanship around the topic of African swine fever. June hogs dropped their 3-cent daily limit. Fundamentally, soybean prices have several bearish concerns and Friday's report on March 1 soybean stocks is likely to be another reminder of how slow soybean demand has been in 2018-19. Technically speaking, May soybeans are close to roughly five months of support near $8.85. For now, the trend remains sideways for both futures and cash prices. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.00 Wednesday, priced 88 cents below the May contract and holding in a narrow, sideways range.

Wheat:

May K.C. wheat closed down 5 3/4 cents Thursday at $4.38 3/4 on light volume, not finding much this time of year to push prices too far in either direction. It wasn't fresh news, but USDA did confirm 4.4 mb (120,000 mt) of U.S. SRW wheat were sold to Egypt for 2018-19. USDA also said 1.8 mb (50,000 mt) of HRW wheat were sold to Iraq for 2018-19 and another 3.7 mb (100,000 mt) for 2019-20. U.S. wheat can use all the sales it can get as Friday's report of March 1 wheat stocks is on track to possibly show the third lowest three quarters of U.S. wheat demand in 12 years. Early Thursday, USDA said 17.5 mb of wheat were sold last week and 15.6 mb were shipped, roughly half the shipment amount that wheat needs each week to reach USDA's export goal. Mexico and Japan were last week's top buyers. The seven-day forecast is mostly dry for the southwestern U.S. Plains but has moderate to heavy rain amounts for the SRW wheat areas in the eastern Midwest. May Minneapolis wheat fell 7 3/4 cents Thursday, in spite of news from the Bismarck Tribune that North Dakota's governor declared a flood emergency for the entire state. For now, the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheat remain down, while the trend in cash HRS wheat is near the upper end of its sideways range. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.30 Wednesday, 15 cents under the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.44, also up from its lowest prices in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

(CZ)

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