DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending across Greenland. This is producing warm temperatures in western Canada, mild/warm central, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough along the coast of California. A ridge over the Rockies and Plain and a trough over the eastern U.S. extending into the western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the south-central atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a strong ridge over Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak trough over eastern Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures over Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific and a low to moderate amplitude jet stream with embedded disturbances across the U.S. into the western atlantic. This will be an active precipitation pattern across the Midwest, less so in the plains due to the speed of movement of systems. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...86 AT WELTON AZ AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELOY AZ LOW WED...22 BELOW ZERO AT HEBRON CO AND COWDREY C

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…DAYTONA BEACH FL 0.66 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement for the first day or two of the outlook period and fair agreement at the end of the period. There is some disagreement during the middle of the period. I favor today's US model.

The US model shows a short wave trough moving over the Rockies and into the plains next Thursday time frame with a surface low forming over the northern part of the central plains region. This low then tracks northeastward through the western Midwest and into the central Great Lakes region. The upper level trough moves east and surface high pressure builds in behind the departing low.

This system is likely to produce at least moderate precipitation in the western Midwest associated with the storm track and moderate to locally heavy activity in the eastern Midwest and Delta associated with potential thunderstorms.

Warmer ahead of the disturbance, cooler or much cooler behind it.

The European model, if it were to verify instead, is further north with both the upper level trough and the surface low. This model has the storm track across North Dakota, southeast Manitoba and western Ontario Canada. The upper trough lifts northward into Canada behind the departing low and is not as deep over the Midwest at the end of the period. This model suggests a better chance for moderate precipitation in the North Dakota/Manitoba area, a lesser chance for significant precipitation in the western Midwest and some scattered moderate activity in the east and south Midwest and Delta.

While either solution is possible I support the US model as it is more consistent with it's run from yesterday and also because it is more supported by it's ensemble run as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES: A heavy snowpack in the eastern Dakotas will lead to major flooding on the Red River this spring. Rainfall is expected to be limited during the next 7 days allowing for a more orderly snow melt.

Precipitation may increase somewhat later in the ten day period but this is somewhat uncertain.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Major flooding in the northern and western Midwest due to heavy rains last week and melting snow.

Moderate rain amounts during the past couple of days favored southwest and east areas, mostly less than 0.50 inch. The next system, this weekend, likely also favors southern and eastern areas. Later next week another system may come further north but since this is longer range it is a little more uncertain.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Adequate to surplus soil moisture for winter wheat as it breaks dormancy. Muddy conditions in the feedlots will stress cattle.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): Favorable weather for developing second crop corn in central Brazil as the rainy season continues, although hot temperatures increase stress to filling crops at times. Some disruptions to the soybean harvest in southern Brazil due to recent shower and thunderstorm activity but these areas may be trending drier during the next 5 to 7 days.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): A drier trend will favor filling and maturing corn and soybeans, although recent very cool temperatures slow the drying process.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Scattered showers and thundershowers early last week will have favored late reproductive and filling crops in the area. Drier, somewhat hotter weather redeveloped at the end of the week. Thunderstorms returned to key growing areas for sugarcane early this week.

CENTRAL EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): A drying trend appears likely during the next week to 10 days or so. Rain early this month when also combined with early winter increased precipitation has improved the outlook for these crops this spring...following last seasons drought. The current drying trend is favorable in terms of improving conditions for late winter fieldwork and prospects for early spring field work as well.

NORTH CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Moderate precipitation developed during the past

24 hours, rain and heavy snow. This will provide a welcome boost to soil moisture in key growing areas, when it melts. Planting typically occurs during May.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Moderate to locally heavy rainfall during this week through the southeast portion of the North China Plain, mainly from southeast Henan and southern Shandong southward. More widespread rain is need for north and west areas of the NCP to support increasing development of winter wheat in these areas. Soil moisture and irrigation should be favorable in winter rapeseed areas of the Yangtze river valley area at this time.

NORTH INDIA/PAKISTAN (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Episodes of scattered showers and cool temperatures during this winter likely favored development of winter crops in these areas, although the cool temperatures may have slowed development somewhat at times. Areas of local flooding where rains were heaviest...most notably in Pakistan. The region has turned drier and hotter during this week.

This will most likely favor maturing crops and early harvesting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal north and east, somewhat warmer southwest.

East: Light to moderate showers and some rain from eastern Illinois eastward during the past 24 hours. Heaviest, mostly 0.25-0.50 inch, in Indiana, northwest Ohio and southern Michigan. Temperatures averaged near to above normal south, near to below normal north.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry today and Friday. Light to locally moderate showers favoring southern and west-central areas during Saturday. Temperatures average mostly near to slightly above normal today and Friday, above normal Saturday.

Light to locally moderate showers south, a little light precipitation north, during Sunday. Drier Monday. Dry Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

East: Showers may linger in southeast areas early today, drier later in the day. Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average above normal for this mornings lows, below normal for the afternoon highs, below normal Friday and early Saturday, near to above normal west and below normal east during Saturday afternoon.

Light to moderate showers with some locally heavier possible during Sunday into Sunday night. Rain may linger in southeast areas early Monday, dry later Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday and Monday, somewhat colder Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Precipitation near to above normal south and east and near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring southeast areas early yesterday. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry today. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier develop in the west and spread east tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Friday, somewhat colder Saturday.

Lingering light showers east, drier west, during Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average above to near normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal for much of the period, possibly colder at the end of the period. Precipitation near to above normal east areas, near to below normal west, during this period.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Light to moderate showers and isolated thundershowers in Parana during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry in RGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today and Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal north, near to below normal central and south.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred through MGDS and southern areas of Mato Grosso during the past 24 hours, some very heavy. Light to locally moderate showers elsewhere in Mato Grosso. Somewhat less in Goias.

Temperatures averaged near to mostly above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some locally heavier today. Showers mainly confined to north and east areas during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures trend somewhat cooler during today, warmer again tomorrow and Saturday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers mainly confined to northern and eastern Mato Grosso Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires…

Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged well below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today through Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today and Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers, favoring western areas, Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday, somewhat cooler again Monday and Tuesday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires…

Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring southwest areas tonight or early Friday. Light to moderate showers favoring south-central and southeast Buenos Aires during Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers Sunday or during Monday. Dry Tuesday.

Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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