DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December corn was up 5 cents. May soybeans closed up 7 cents and November soybeans were up 6 3/4 cents. May Kanas City wheat closed up 22 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 24 1/2 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was up 14 1/2 cents.

The March U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.224 at 96.950. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 73.97 points at 25,576.91. April gold is up $7.50 at $1,298.60, May silver is up $0.15 at $15.43 and May copper is up $0.0275 at $2.9285. April crude oil is up $0.16 at $56.95, April heating oil is down $0.0079, April RBOB is down $0.0067 and April natural gas is up $0.013.

Corn:

May corn closed up 3 3/4 cents at $3.65 3/4 Tuesday, getting a modest lift on higher volume after prices fell to a new contract low on Monday. Much of the bearish pressure on corn prices can be traced to favorable crop conditions in Brazil and Argentina and this week's forecast continues to look good for crops. Early Tuesday, Brazil's official crop agency, CONAB, raised its estimate of Brazil's corn crop from 91.7 million metric tons (mmt) to 92.8 mmt (3.65 billion bushels). Here in the U.S., temperatures are warmer Tuesday with rain falling in eastern Kansas, western Iowa and Missouri. More precipitation is expected in the central U.S. this week, creating winter storm warnings in the northwestern Plains and flooding concerns from Kansas to Minnesota. Fundamentally speaking, cash corn prices are cheap with lots of uncertainty ahead in 2019. For now, the trend in cash corn is currently down early in 2019. There were 1,022 contracts of March corn still open early Tuesday, two days before contracts expire on March 14. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.33 Monday, priced 29 cents below the May contract and at its lowest price in over three months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.22 after the U.S. Labor Department said consumer prices were up a tame 1.5% in February from a year ago.

Soybeans:

May soybeans finished up 7 cents at $8.97 Tuesday, finding helpful support after falling to a new three-month low on Monday. Early Tuesday, Brazil's CONAB lowered its estimate of Brazil's soybean crop from 115.3 mmt to 113.5 mmt (4.17 bb). A private consultant, AgRural slightly raised its crop estimate to 112.9 mmt (4.15 bb). USDA currently expects Brazil to export 69.5 mmt (2.55 bb) of soybeans in their current local season and Tuesday's lower crop estimate may bring another reduction to the export total. On the other hand, soybeans in Argentina are doing well and USDA expects 7.0 mmt (257 million bushels) of soybean exports in the new season that starts on April 1. While crop estimates are narrowing for South America, there are a lot of questions of how planting will go in the U.S. this spring with several areas currently saturated or still under snow. Traders continue to watch, but there is no word yet on an agreement between the U.S. and China. Monday's lower close turned the trend in May soybean futures down, but the trend for cash soybeans remains sideways for now. Trading in March soybeans is getting thinner with 325 contracts still open as of early Tuesday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.02 Monday, priced 88 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

After falling to a new contract low on Monday, May K.C. wheat gained back 22 1/2 cents Tuesday to $4.42 3/4, as prospects for hazardous weather appeared to spark some short-covering in winter wheat. The National Weather Service has the southwestern U.S. Plains at risk of winter storms, high winds and even flooding this week, mainly through Thursday. Winter wheat is a hardy crop and will probably be fine, but Tuesday's buying caught noncommercials off guard after they had allegedly been adding to short positions lately. May Minneapolis wheat also benefitted, closing up 14 1/2 cents Tuesday, rebuffing Monday's new contract low. With U.S. wheat supplies plentiful and the uncertainty of a new growing season ahead, the trends in cash hard red winter (HRW) wheat and soft red winter (SRW) wheat are down, while the trend in cash hard red spring (HRS) wheat remains sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.02 Monday, 19 cents under the May contract and near its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.04, near its lowest prices in 11 months. Trading in March contracts of wheat is dangerously thin with few contracts still open before contracts expire on March 14.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

(CZ)

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