Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Minor disturbances for the Midwest on Friday and the weekend, and thunderstorms and showers for Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MINOR DISTURBANCES IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for minor disturbances moving across the Midwest, which may cause local problems during Friday and the weekend, especially west and south areas. Next week, heavier precipitation is expected through the southeast United States, which may affect the Delta and the Ohio River Valley at times. In the six- to 10-day outlook, temperatures are expected to average mostly below normal west, near to below normal central, and near to above normal east. Precipitation is expected to be near to below normal west and northeast, and near to above normal southeast.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL, SOUTHERN PLAINS

Mostly favorable conditions are forecast for the overwintering wheat crop in the central and southern Plains, although soil moisture supplies have decreased significantly in west Texas with reports of the crop in need of moisture. No damaging cold is indicated at this time, although generally below- or well-below-normal temperatures are expected. In the six- to 10-day outlook, temperatures are expected to average below normal early in the period, below normal west and near to above normal east late in the period. Precipitation is expected to be below normal west and northeast, and near to below normal in the southeast.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Episodes of scattered thunderstorms and cool weather will favor filling soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil at this time. Showers in Parana will favor late-filling soybeans and developing second crop corn but may cause minor delays to the soybean harvest. Increasing showers in central Brazil crop areas will favor late-filling soybeans and developing safrinha corn, but may slow the soybean harvest and the corn planting at times. In general, a net benefit to corn is expected, despite potential fieldwork delays.

RAIN, COOLER WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Cool weather and recent rainfall will favor development of crops in Argentina's central growing belt. However, the soils will be trending drier during the next five to seven days or so. Recent cool weather also favors developing sunflowers in southern locations, but the hot, dry weather will return to this area before and during the weekend and possibly early next week. The next chance for scattered showers in the sunflower areas of La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires does not come until next Wednesday or Thursday.

FAVORABLE MOISTURE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Widespread moderate and heavy rain has occurred through maize and sugarcane areas this week in South Africa. This will provide very favorable moisture for reproductive to filling crops and for the last part of the crop cycle. Some reports suggest that prior dryness may have limited overall acreage somewhat, especially in the western growing belt. However, improved prospects in central and east areas may make up for somewhat less acreage in the western growing areas.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Mostly favorable conditions are forecast for overwintering crops in the Black Sea region. Autumn drought limited winter crop emergence and establishment from eastern France and the Low Countries into Germany and northwestern Poland as well as portions of the western and central Balkans. Producers will likely need to replant in the spring in the worst drought areas. A developing upper-level ridge might limit chances for meaningful precipitation in the central Europe crop belt for a while.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR CHINA

An active fall and winter period near the Yangtze River Valley of eastern China will provide favorable moisture for crops in the region come spring. This is mainly affected the winter rapeseed crop but the moisture has, at times, extended into the southern winter wheat belt. The northern winter wheat areas have been drier, typical for this area during the winter months.

COOL, SHOWERS IN INDIA

Episodes of scattered showers and cool weather during this winter will mostly favor development of crops in India, although possibly slowing development somewhat at times.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(AG)

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