DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn was down 3/4 cent and December 2019 corn was down 1/4 cent. March soybeans were up 2 3/4 cents and November 2019 soybeans were up 3 3/4 cents. March K.C. wheat closed down 3 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cent, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents. The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.51 at 95.24. February gold is up $3.70 at $1,289.50 while March silver is down 7 cents and March copper is down $0.0080. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 163 points at 23,597. February crude oil is up $0.90 at $48.86. February heating oil is up $0.0234 while February RBOB gasoline is up $0.0163 and February natural gas is down 9.4 cents.

Corn:

March corn ended down 3/4 cent at $3.82 1/4 Monday, another day of quiet trading in early January. The WASDE report scheduled for Jan. 11 has been postponed due to the government shutdown and one of the things we will miss will be the crop estimates for South America. Southern Brazil received beneficial rain over the weekend, but is still looking at a forecast of hot and dry weather the next seven days. Moderate rain amounts remain in the forecast for northern Argentina and crops are said to be doing well. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Thursday that only 6% of the corn crop is rated poor to very poor. Early Monday, USDA said 19.7 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, a much lower amount than the previous week. Total inspections are now up 61% in 2018-19 from a year ago. With no government reporting of export sales, cash corn is currently priced near the midpoint of this year's expected range and the trend remains up. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.51 Friday, at its highest price in six months and 32 cents below the March contract. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.51 with some in media expressing optimism that significant progress is being made in trade talks with China.

Soybeans:

March soybeans ended up 2 3/4 cents at $9.12 1/4 Monday, also showing light trading volume while representatives from the U.S. and China continue discussions that are important to the future of soybean trade in 2019. Rumors also continue to trickle that China is buying more U.S. soybeans, but with the federal government not reporting export sales, traders are left with no solid accounting. Meanwhile, light rain was reported over the weekend in southern Brazil, but the seven-day forecast continues to be hot and dry. In Argentina, soybean crops are doing well as the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported just 11% of Argentina's soybeans in poor to very poor condition late Thursday. Earlier Monday, USDA said 24.7 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, putting the 2018-19 total down 42% from a year ago. Fundamentally, there is still a chance of having over a billion bushels of U.S. ending soybean stocks in 2018-19, but it is difficult to say how trade talks with China will turn out. Until the trade issue is settled, soybean prices remain potentially volatile in either direction. Currently, the trend in cash soybean prices is sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.31 Friday, down from its highest level in four months and $0.91 below the March contract. Among January contracts early Monday, there were 1,139 delivery intentions for soybeans, 497 for meal and 37 for soybean oil.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat closed down 3 cents at $5.03 Monday, struggling to sustain attempts at higher prices. At this time of year, there is not a lot happening to move wheat prices either direction and without the government providing export sales info, there is even less news than usual. Earlier Monday, USDA did say 9.6 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, a small amount that has total inspections now down 13% in 2018-19 from a year ago. It is interesting to note that the southwestern U.S. Plains is starting 2019 mostly drought-free after receiving lots of rain in the fall. For now, the trends in cash HRW and HRS wheat are still sideways, while the trend in cash SRW wheat remains up. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.80 Friday, down from a three-month high and 26 cents below the March contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.92 Friday, down from its four-month high.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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