DTN Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Heavy rains over the next few days causing harvest delays in the northern and western Midwest, beneficial soil moisture for Southern Plains winter wheat crop development, and favorable conditions for central Brazil, are key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MODERATE TO HEAVY WESTERN MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for increasing coverage of moderate and heavy rain at the end of this week through to the middle part of next week. This will delay and disrupt the harvest and will be highly unfavorable for maturing crops in the western and north-central Midwest region. A more favorable weather pattern for harvesting is seen for the east and south areas of the Midwest during this period.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

Increasing rain and thunderstorms for the Central and Southern Plains will provide for adequate and surplus soil moisture for winter wheat development.

Local flooding is likely. Planting delays also likely. Rain delays and disrupts the harvest of summer crops.

COLD, UNSETTLED WEATHER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Across the Northern Plains, cold, unsettled weather is unfavorable for maturing crops and harvesting. This unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue during the next five to six days. This might mean snow in some cases.

SOUTHEAST U.S. STORM POTENTIAL

The European model continues to show a storm in the north-central and northeast Gulf of Mexico at the end of next week. This may mean rain and wind for crop areas of the southeast U.S. but this is highly uncertain. Cotton and peanut harvests could be somewhat at risk.

DRY AND WARM IN DELTA

The Delta will have improving conditions for fieldwork during the next five days as drier, warmer weather dominates the region.

COLD PATTERN CONTINUES IN PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, moderate to locally heavy precipitation over southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan early this week included an unusual early season snowstorm. This is likely to halt harvesting of wheat and canola in the area for a while. Areas farther north in the Prairies have been and will continue to be drier and cold. This is a more favorable pattern for harvests in these locations.

MORE CENTRAL BRAZIL RAIN

Central Brazil has episodes of scattered thundershowers and warm weather that will favor planting and early development of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Planting of full season corn may have slowed due to recent rains in southern Brazil. The area may see more heavy rain later this weekend or early next week.

AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Episodes of showers has recently improved conditions for reproductive to filling wheat in Western Australia. Rain has moved into New South Wales this week. This favors reproductive to filling wheat in the south part of the state, but it is likely too late to help the drought-reduced crop in the north or wheat in south Queensland. Rainfall in northern NSW and south Queensland may help improve conditions for planting sorghum and cotton, but more will still be needed.

TYPOHOON IMPACT ON SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN

Typhoon Kong-Rey is expected to bring heavy rain and wind to South Korea and then to northern Japan during the weekend. It will become extratropical as it tracks across. Rain will delay the rice harvest. Flooding may lead to some losses.

TROPICAL STORMS UPDATE

As of early Friday morning, Hurricane Leslie, with 65-mile-per-hour winds, was located near about 445 miles northeast of Bermuda. Leslie is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 kilometers/hour). A slower northward motion is expected to occur today, but Leslie will make a sharp turn toward the east and east-southeast over the weekend.

At 2 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Sergio, with 120-mph winds, was located 875 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja in the Pacific. Sergio is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west and west-southwest at a similar speed is expected during the next 24 hours. Sergio should then turn to the northeast later in the weekend and early next week and is expected to affect the southwest U.S. early in the six-to-10-day period.

The European jet stream model continues to show a low in the north-central and northeast Gulf of Mexico during the outlook period, which may mean tropical development and a heavy rain chance for the Gulf Coast states. The U.S. model continues to mostly ignore this development but with the ridge shifting east and south showers may develop in the area anyway. This bears watching, even though there remains uncertainty at this time.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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