DTN Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued Midwest rain, and dryness reducing Russia wheat production, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

MORE MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for additional showers and thunderstorms across the Midwest for another five to seven days. The rain, along with cooler weather, will cause some crop stress due to ponding and flooding-out in areas of heaviest rainfall. The six- to 10-day forecast calls for a warmer and drier trend. Current guidance indicates this trend will be brief and mostly favorable for crops; however, it will bear watching as critical corn pollination and soybean flowering stages begin.

RAIN HINDERS SOUTHERN PLAINS HARVEST

In the Southern Plains, thunderstorms are expected in northern and central areas during the next week. Winter wheat harvest disruption is likely along with possible crop quality loss. The rain, however, will be favorable for row crop and cotton moisture. Southern areas will remain hotter and drier, with stressful conditions for crops and pastures.

DRYNESS RETURNS TO WEST TEXAS

West Texas cotton areas will have a return to drier weather during this week and next. In addition, the pattern will also return to a hotter trend.

MILD NORTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

Across the Northern Plains, favorable conditions for development of spring wheat, corn and soybeans are in effect at this time. Mostly dry conditions are forecast over the region during the next week, which will reduce soil moisture. The weather is expected to be mild, however, which will minimize the moisture decline.

WARMER AND DRIER FOR PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies will have above-normal temperatures with the chance for mostly light showers during the next week. A cooler and more unsettled pattern develops after that. Crops have mostly favorable conditions, with some drier areas.

MORE RUSSIA HEAT

In the Black Sea region, south and east Ukraine and south Russia will continue hot, with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit, through the end of the week. Scattered thundershowers will break this heat wave during the weekend. Stress remains high on developing corn and sunflower in the area, but should ease some during the weekend. The temperature pattern going forward is more variable in nature. The rainfall pattern looks to continue below-normal levels. Drier conditions during the spring have already resulted in an estimated 20% decline in the Russia wheat crop compared with a year ago.

PERIODIC NORTHEAST CHINA SHOWERS

Northeast China has a variable temperatures pattern with episodes of showers, which will favor development of crops.

HOT AND DRY IN NORTH CHINA PLAIN

Key growing areas of the North China Plain continue mostly dry or with only isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal as highs reach the middle 90s Fahrenheit each day, possibly the upper 90s at times. Scattered thunderstorms move through Monday and Tuesday, possibly favoring south and east areas. Temperatures drop somewhat with these showers. Drier and hotter weather redevelops for the middle to late part of next week. Dryness and early summer heat continue to stress development of summer crops in the region. The typical monsoon rains appear to be slow coming northward into the region.

LAGGING INDIA MONSOON

The India monsoon leading edge remains over northern areas of south India and eastern areas of north India. This is about 10 to 15 days behind average placement. There are signs of a building monsoon as rain activity has picked up in the eastern Arabian Sea and the north and central Bay of Bengal, on either side of India. This likely means the monsoon will begin to progress north and west during the coming days. However, significant rain in the key growing areas of central and west-central India is still indicated to be slow in development.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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