DTN Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A hotter trend for the Midwest, and a close watch on possible rain from Tropical Storm Bud, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

HOT WEEKEND FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a turn to hot weather in the Midwest at the end of this week and during the weekend; heat likely continues into early next week. Recent rainfall has provided for favorable soil moisture levels in many areas of the Midwest. This moisture should diminish somewhat under the hotter, drier pattern during this timeframe. The longer-range forecast calls for renewed shower chances and a moderating temperature trend in the 10-day timeframe.

MORE SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAT

Across the Southern Plains, very hot and mostly dry weather maintains high stress levels on developing summer crops while favoring mature wheat and the wheat harvest. Showers may increase in the region later in the period which may help to ease stress to crops, somewhat.

“BUD” WATCH IN WEST TEXAS

In west Texas, hot and dry conditions during this crop season are on pace to bring major losses to dryland cotton. There appears to be some chance that south to southeast winds may bring a chance for showers to the region during the weekend. We also need to watch the track of the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Bud; however, it appears this moisture stays west of the area. In the longer range, an eastward shift to upper-air high pressure over the Southern Plains increases the chance for showers in the west Texas region next week. This is especially evident on the Thursday European model, but also suggested somewhat on the U.S. model as well. This is an uncertain forecast, but it does bear watching.

FAVORABLE NORTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

Northern Plains' crop areas continue with generally favorable conditions for development of spring wheat, corn and soybeans. Periodic showers and mild temperatures highlight the forecast pattern over the next week.

PRAIRIES PATTERN CHANGE

The Canadian Prairies have additional showers Thursday, favorable for emerging and developing crops. The pattern is set to turn drier and hotter.

SCATTERED UKRAINE SHOWERS

In the Black Sea region, thunderstorms have developed in a parts of northeast and southwest Ukraine during the past 24 hours. This will help ease dryness concerns for some areas, but more widespread and frequent showers are needed to reverse the recent drying trend over the remainder of Ukraine through southern Russia.

USEFUL NORTHEAST CHINA SHOWERS

Scattered thunderstorms occurred through the southern part of northeast China during the past couple of days. The area will see occasional showers and thundershowers during the coming days, helping to ease dryness concerns for this crop area.

SCATTERED NORTH CHINA PLAIN RAIN

Thunderstorms developed in the northeast part of the North China Plain region during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry conditions prevailed elsewhere in the region. Temperatures may turn lower in the region during the next few days. However, the region likely continues to see episodes of hot weather and less-than-needed rainfall during the next seven days or so.

VARIED INDIA MONSOON

The leading edge of the India monsoon is over the northern part of south India and in northeast India Thursday; progress is from four to seven days behind average for this date. The activity associated with the Monsoon has retreated south and east during the past five days. This likely means that further progress to the north and northwest will slow into next week. The rains stay south and east of key growing areas for cotton, soybeans, groundnuts, sugarcane and sorghum in the west-central India region. Temperatures likely turn higher as showers diminish.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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