DTN Closing Grain Comments

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

General Comments:

July corn was unchanged at $3.96 1/2 with December 1/4 cent lower at $4.14 1/4. July soybeans finished 14 1/2 cents higher at $10.17 3/4 with November up 9 cents at $10.23 1/4. July Chicago wheat closed 7 1/2 cents lower at $4.91 1/4, July Kansas City lost 8 1/4 cents to $5.09 3/4, and July Minneapolis dropped 2 1/2 cents to $6.02 1/2. June gold was $6.60 lower at $1,314.10 with July silver down $0.202 and June copper losing $0.0180. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 60 points to 24,892, though well off session highs. June crude oil rallied $0.18 to $70.88. The June distillates (heating oil) contract was $0.0257 higher, June RBOB gasoline gained $0.0109, and June natural gas added $0.016.

Corn:

Corn refused to play along with the game in soybeans, largely ignoring rumors of U.S. trade deals and seemingly unavoidable administration denials throughout the day. This led to a near unchanged close for both old-crop and new-crop futures. It will be interesting to see where the DTN National Corn Index is calculated Monday evening, with even the slightest downtick leaving the door open to a possible island-top reversal pattern on its weekly chart. Fundamentally, the market saw another solid weekly export inspection number of 61.2 million bushels (mb), setting the stage for large shipments in this coming Thursday's report.

Soybeans:

The soybean market had an interesting session, with an early double-digit rally in old-crop July sparked by strong commercial buying in soybean meal. Both were due to a rainy weekend in Argentina, causing more problems for that country as it tries to harvest what's left of its soybean crop. Then, near midday, rumors started circulating that a trade deal between the U.S. and China was near. This jumped the market another dime, putting July up almost 23 cents at its peak. Late in the session, U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross denied that a deal was close, throwing cool, but not cold, water on the rally. Soybeans were still able to post a double-digit rally due to the problems in Argentina. However, the market is vulnerable to "Turnaround Tuesday" style trade if bearish trade news breaks overnight.

Wheat:

Weekend rains across parts of the U.S. Southern Plains and Midwest had winter wheat contracts on the defensive throughout Monday's session. Selling came from both commercial and noncommercial traders; the former indicated by the strengthening carry in the July-to-September futures spreads for both Chicago and Kansas City. Noncommercial interest intensified as the July KC contract broke through short-term technical price support on its daily chart at $5.11 1/2. However, as with soybeans, Monday's sharp sell-off could lead to "Turnaround Tuesday" style starting with the overnight session.

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Follow Darin Newsom on Twitter @DarinNewsom

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