Winter Wheat Tour - Day 3

WICHITA, Kan. (DTN) -- Kansas wheat has the potential to yield 37 bushels per acre on average this year, organizers of the Wheat Quality Council's Winter Wheat Tour announced early Thursday afternoon. But in order to reach that potential, the crop will need timely rains and near-ideal weather conditions the rest of the growing season, scouts on the tour noted. Some fields may not even make it to harvest.

The final average yield estimate was based on field measurements made during 644 stops across Kansas over three days. This year's estimated yield potential is down over 11 bpa from the 2017 average estimate of 48.6 bpa with 469 stops.

On Thursday, the third and final day of the tour, a total of 21 cars of scouts made 43 stops at wheat fields as they headed back to Manhattan, Kansas, for a noon wrap-up session. The calculated potential yield from all cars for day three was 39.8 bushels per acre, down 19.1 bushels per acre from last year's day-three average of 58 bpa.

Scouts saw many of the same things on the third day of the tour that they saw the first two days -- late fields in need of moisture -- with one exception: mud. Severe weather that moved across much of the state Wednesday gave wheat a much-needed drink of water, but also made scouting fields a little more of a challenge. Scouts noted that, in some spots, it felt like quicksand, especially in spots where fields received an inch or more of rain.

At the conclusion of the tour, Dave Green, executive director of the Wheat Quality Council, said that this year's crop is "concerning." He noted that the onset of hotter weather will speed up the crop's development. However, he said, "We need rain to bring this crop in. The wheat is short in many places and is at least a month behind in spots."

Some of the milling industry participants on the tour questioned how a combine could effectively collect the shorter plants that may not have much potential to add growth before harvest.

Romulo Lollato, assistant professor of wheat and forages production at Kansas State University (KSU), told DTN that his No. 1 concern is drought stress in Kansas and Oklahoma, with southwest Kansas and Oklahoma showing the most duress at this time.

"Crops are behind two to four weeks right now," said Lollato. One of the better counties right now in Kansas is Sumner County. Lollato said that last year at this time, the wheat in that county was in milk stage, but is currently only in boot stage.

Lollato added, "Wheat that is currently in joint stage should be at boot stage, and wheat that is at boot stage should be in grain-fill stage at this time of the year."

What this means is the less time a plant has in the grain-fill stage, the less it will yield. This crop needs time, which it doesn't have, but also heat and timely rains to give it a chance, scouts and experts noted. Still, it is likely production will be down in Kansas and Oklahoma, especially since there is still uncertainty over how many fields may not make it to harvest.

Here is a link to the stages of wheat growth and development provided by K-State Research and Development: http://www.dtn.com/…

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

(AG/ES)

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