Winter Wheat Tour - Day 2

WICHITA, Kan. (DTN) -- The theme of day two of the Wheat Quality Council's Winter Wheat Tour was much the same as that of day one: The crop is late and needs moisture, and many fields will need near-perfect weather to have a chance of making it.

The tour measures the potential of the crop. For the second day, a total of 21 cars of scouts made 284 stops at wheat fields across north-central, central and northwest Kansas and into northern counties of Oklahoma along the southern Kansas border. The calculated potential yield from all cars for day two was 35.2 bushels per acre, down more than 11 bushels per acre from last year's day-two average of 46.9 bpa. That put the running two-day average at 36.8 bpa on a total of 601 stops, down from last year's two-day average of 44.9 bpa on a total of 427 stops.

Mark Hodges, executive director of Plains Grains Inc., spoke to tour participants Wednesday evening about the condition of the Oklahoma crop. He said that the southwest Panhandle wheat crop this year was one of the worst he has ever seen.

"We had average rain in the fall with erratic stands that did not develop ahead of the crop going in to dormancy," Hodges said. "The entire state had no snow, with less than one-tenth inch of moisture over the winter. There are fields being grazed, and on top of the moisture issue, some of the wheat fields burned up in the mid-April fires in western Oklahoma. We've got a problem."

Hodges noted that the U.S. Drought Monitor tells much of the story for the state, and added that the farther west one goes, the worse the crops get. "In parts of the state, there is no root system under the plant and very few tillers," he said. "The crop is a long way from harvest and anything can happen."

Romulo Lollato, assistant professor of wheat and forages production at Kansas State University (KSU), told tour participants that the crop is late for parts of Kansas. "There are fields still in boot stage with more heading seen in the southern part of the state. We would need near-perfect weather for grain fill in order to make a decent crop."

Lollato said that stripe rust disease has been reported in Oklahoma, which could move north into Kansas if conditions are ripe. "The question is," he said, "do producers spray it or choose not to incur the additional costs if they are facing short crops? If the crop is only 8 to 9 inches tall and disease hits, it is likely they won't save it."

Dan O'Brien, associate professor in the KSU Department of Agricultural Economics, spoke to the participants on the first night of the tour and said it is tough for farmers in Kansas right now. He said there is "quiet concern" that this year's drought has caused duress for many farmers because of the risk of financial issues associated with the condition of the wheat crop at this time.

While there may be a chance for some of this year's crop to recover, the feeling of tour participants this week has been that, in its current state, the crop will need a lot of help. But there are some fields that may be beyond help and might have to be grazed or sprayed down. Some farmers who tour participants visited with said that this year's crop ranks in the bottom three of the worst they have seen in their many years of farming.

The ultimate fate of the crop depends on what the weather does over the coming weeks. It wasn't looking good on Wednesday, as severe weather and tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma brought damaging winds and hail to many parts of both states. More severe weather was forecast to move through both states Wednesday evening and Thursday.

The tour wraps up Thursday in Manhattan.

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Editor's note: DTN will be tweeting and also posting nightly summaries of the winter wheat tour. Readers can follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter at @MaryCKenn and also @dtnpf #wheattour18.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

(PS/AG)

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