DTN Early Word Grains
A Mixed Market Morning
July corn was 1 cent lower, July soybeans were 5 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 4 cents lower.
CME Globex Recap:Commodities in general were mostly higher early Thursday morning, though the grain and oilseed complex was mixed. Soybeans continued its rally, adding another nickel to this week's news, while winter wheat was down almost a nickel. Corn, as usual, was sitting quietly in between. Metals were also mixed, with gold and silver higher while copper was lower. The energy complex was in the green again as the U.S. dollar index came under pressure.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 59.70 points (0.3%) higher at 24,083.83, the NASDAQ Composite lost 3.61 points to 7,003.74, and the S&P 500 added 4.84 points (0.2%) to 2,639.40 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 26 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 104.29 points (0.5%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng losing 320.47 points (1.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite falling 42.94 points (1.4%). European markets were trading higher with London's FTSE 100 up 11.98 points (0.2%), Germany's DAX gaining 29.01 points (0.2%), and France's CAC 40 rallying 24.97 points (0.5%). The euro was 0.0012 higher at 1.2172 while the U.S. dollar index slipped 0.05 to 91.20. June 30-year T-Bonds were 11/32 higher at 142'03 while June gold added $0.60 to $1,323.40. Crude oil was $0.38 higher at $68.43 as Brent crude gained $0.57 to $74.57. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower overnight.
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | The DTN National Corn Index is poised for a bullish breakout of a triple-top near $3.57 on its short-term daily chart. | 1) | After the standard three days against the prevailing short-term trend, corn futures would be expected to move lower again Thursday. |
| 2) | Deferred soybean futures spreads continue to reflect a long-term bullish view of supply and demand. | 2) | Total marketing year soybean export shipments are expected to still be below USDA's projected pace following Thursday's weekly update. |
| 3) | Weather remains a bullish factor for new-crop winter wheat with another weekend on the horizon. | 3) | Fundamentally, winter wheat futures spreads remain extremely bearish. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN The most interesting corn market early Thursday morning is the DTN National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price). Wednesday's nickel rally creates a triple-top formation on the NCI's daily chart near ($3.57 on March 8, $3.56 on April 9, and $3.56 on April 25) and adds a higher peak to the recent series on the NCI's weekly close-only chart ($3.53 week of March 5, $3.54 week of April 2). The will be where the NCI is calculated this Friday evening. Thursday's weekly export sales and shipments update is expected to be bullish once again, with another round of solid sales likely and Monday's weekly export inspection number of 67.7 mb pointing to another large weekly shipment number. While marketing year total shipments will still be behind USDA's projected pace, the gap between the two should continue to narrow.
SOYBEANS Soybean futures are sitting where corn contracts were 24 hours earlier, with higher overnight trade hinting at a third consecutive higher daily close against the prevailing short-term sell-off. July beans continue to hold above support minor support on its daily chart at $10.27 3/4 while daily stochastics (short-term momentum study) remain bearish. The contract's daily chart continues to indicate another breakdown is coming, with a possible catalyst Thursday's weekly export sales and shipment update. Though already priced into the market commercially, noncommercial traders could view an expected weak shipment number as an opportunity to sell. Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 17.3 mb, an improvement from the previous two weeks.
WHEAT Winter wheat markets were lower overnight into early Thursday morning, giving back about a 1/3 of Wednesday's impressive rally. For now new-crop July Kansas City still looks to be consolidating, albeit in a wide range, on its short-term daily chart. Trendline resistance from the peaks of $5.65 (March 2) and $5.47 3/4 (April 9) comes in at $5.38 3/4 Thursday. Trendline support from the lows of $4.75 1/2 (March 29) and $4.94 3/4 (April 17) sits at $5.06. Fundamentally there hasn't been much change to new-crop winter wheat, with trade still concerned about weather while futures spreads show a long-term bearish supply and demand situation.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.56 | $0.05 | -$0.30 | May | $0.001 |
| Soybeans: | $9.59 | $0.05 | -$0.68 | May | $0.002 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.57 | $0.14 | -$0.29 | May | -$0.001 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.70 | $0.15 | -$0.37 | May | $0.007 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.90 | $0.08 | -$0.09 | May | $0.008 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
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