DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge to the north of Alaska extending up towards the pole. A trough over northwest and north-central Canada and a ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This is a cool/cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge off the west coast of the U.S. A trough along the southwest U.S. A ridge over the central U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is along the west-central coast of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days. Fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and some ridging over Greenland. This will remain a cold pattern for central and eastern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough along the west coast. A ridge over the Rockies. And a trough over the eastern U.S. This pattern will continue to feature episodes of cool and unsettled weather in the Midwest under the trough aloft. However the exact position of the trough will determine how much precipitation occurs. Current guidance indicates the trough may be far enough to the east during the 6-10 day period to keep most of the significant activity to the south and east of the major Midwest growing areas. However this is uncertain and could easily change with the next run of the computer.

This pattern will feature near to below normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal. The southern plains will see near to below normal temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures. Precipitation mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures. Rainfall above normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...92 AT SAFFORD AZ

LOW THU...2 AT STAMBAUGH MI

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…PROVIDENCE RI .44 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European are in fair-good agreement during the outlook period.

The northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada. And some ridging over Greenland. This will remain a cold pattern for central and eastern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough along the west coast. A ridge over the Rockies. And a trough over the eastern US. This pattern will continue to feature episodes of cool and unsettled weather in the Midwest under the trough aloft. However the exact position of the trough will determine how much precipitation occurs. Current guidance indicates the trough may be far enough to the east during the 6-10 day period to keep most of the significant activity to the south and east of the major Midwest growing areas. However this is uncertain and could easily change with the next run of the computer.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Cold weather significantly limits spring wheat planting in the northern plains as soil temperatures are too cold to support germination.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT): Some significant rain during the next

48 hours will benefit the crop which has been stressed by drought in many locations.

MIDWEST (SPRING FIELD WORK): Cold/unsettled weather continues to limit fieldwork and corn planting. Much of the corn acreage will likely not get planted until May.

DELTA/SOUTHEAST US: Planting progress for corn and soybeans is running near normal levels despite a heavy rain event once a week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): The main planting season begins in early May. Cold early spring temperatures have likely limited early field work and may delay the start of the planting season. Top soil moisture has improved somewhat in some locations during the spring but subsoil moisture is likely still quite low. The spring flood risk is expected to be low.

BRAZIL (CORN): Favorable soil for developing second crop corn in central Brazil.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE, SUGARCANE): Favorable soil moisture for late filling crops.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT, WINTER RAPESEED): Mostly favorable soil moisture for developing winter crops. Some significant rainfall is expected during the next

5 days.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry conditions. Temperatures below to much below normal.

East: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures below n to much below normal.

Forecast...

West: Dry weather Friday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain Saturday.

Dry weather Sunday-Monday. Light to moderate rain or some mixed precipitation Tuesday. Dry conditions or just some lingering light rain in the east Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday. Temperatures below normal Friday-Saturday, variable Sunday, near to above normal Monday, variable Tuesday, below normal Wednesday, variable Thursday.

East: Dry weather through Sunday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain Monday-Tuesday. Light to moderate rain Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday.

Temperatures below normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, variable Tuesday, below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to above normal.

Delta (Corn, Soybeans, Cotton)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures much below normal.

Forecast: Dry weather Friday-Saturday. Heavy rain Sunday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain Monday. Dry weather Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures near to below normal. Rainfall near to above normal.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Dry weather into Monday. Rain or some mixed precipitation over southern areas later Monday and early Tuesday. Light to moderate amounts are expected. Dry weather Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, variable Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, variable Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Rain develops on Friday ending on Saturday. Light to moderate amounts in the west, moderate to heavy in the east. Dry weather Sunday-Monday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain Tuesday. Mostly dry weather Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below to much below normal through Sunday, variable Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to below normal.

Canadian Prairies (Canola, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Dry weather Friday. Some light precipitation in the west Saturday.

Dry conditions or just some light precipitation in the east Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, variable Sunday.

Dry weather Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, variable Tuesday.

6 to 10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable west, near to below normal east.

Precipitation below normal west, near to below normal east.

By Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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