DTN Early Word Grains

Meanwhile, Down on the Farm...

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

July corn was fractionally lower, July soybeans were fractionally higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 5 cents higher.

CME Globex Recap:

Early Thursday morning shows the grain and oilseed complex quiet, with most contracts near unchanged. Meanwhile, Kansas City HRW wheat was able to gain back another nickel of the recent sell-off. The energy complex was mostly higher while metals were lower. The U.S. dollar index was showing a small gain while DJIA futures saw light selling interest.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38.56 points (0.2%) lower at 24,748.07, the NASDAQ Composite gained 14.14 points (0.2%) to 7,295.24, and the S&P 500 rallied 2.25 points (0.1%) to 2,708.64 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 24 points lower early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 32.98 points (0.2%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 424.19 points (1.4%), and China's Shanghai Composite adding 25.98 points (0.8%). European markets were trading mostly higher with London's FTSE 100 up 16.04 points (0.2%), Germany's DAX down 6.44 points, and France's CAC 40 up 11.20 points (0.2%). The euro was 0.0005 lower at 1.2370 while the U.S. dollar index gained 0.07 to 89.67. June 30-year T-Bonds were 24/32 lower at 144'06 while June gold lost $3.90 to $1,349.50. Crude oil was $0.35 higher at $68.82 as Brent crude rallied another $0.43 to $73.91. China's Dalian soybean futures were lower and Malaysian palm oil futures near unchanged overnight.

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BULL BEAR
1) Unshipped sales of corn are expected to still be large in Thursday's weekly export sales and shipment update. 1) The actual pace of corn exports is expected to still be behind pace to meet USDA's latest projection.
2) After closing lower Wednesday, soybean contracts could try to post a small rally Thursday. 2) Marketing year export shipment demand for soybeans is expected to still be running behind USDA's projected pace with Thursday's weekly update.
3) The HRW crop across the U.S. Southern Plains could be beyond saving, regardless of weekend rains. 3) Export demand for U.S. wheat supplies continues to run behind USDA's projected pace.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN Corn did little overnight with old-crop July trading in a 1 1/4-cent trading range and new-crop December moving only 1 cent through early Thursday morning. Technically, at least short-term, is that the July contract has moved back above the midpoint ($3.90) of its continued sideways trading range between the high of $4.02 3/4 (March 13) and low of $3.77 1/2 (March 23). Fundamentally, all eyes will be on Thursday's weekly export sales and shipment numbers for the week ending Thursday, April 12. While some in the industry continue to tout the bullishness of corn's large outstanding sales figure, others point to the bearishness of the actual pace of export demand. Meanwhile, both the May-to-July futures spread and national average basis remain bearish.

SOYBEANS Soybean contracts were fractionally mixed early Thursday following a relatively quiet overnight session. Technically, new-crop November continues to consolidate between resistance at its high of $10.60 (April 2) and retracement support near $10.38 1/4. Fundamentally, at least for old-crop, traders will take note of the latest weekly export sales and shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, April 12) when released Thursday morning. As of the previous report, shipments continue to run behind USDA's projected demand pace. Meanwhile, the carry in the May-to-July futures spread has strengthened to 11 1/4 cents while nation average basis remains weaker than normal for this time of year.

WHEAT The wheat complex was higher early Thursday morning, again led by a rally in the Kansas City (HRW) market. There, new-crop July was a nickel higher overnight as it continues to rally off its recent test of technical retracement support at $5.00. Key to the contract will be its ability to get above its previous peak of $5.47 3/4 (April 9). To do this, the U.S. Southern Plains will likely need to miss out on forecasted rain this weekend, or have traders move back to the side that even if it does rain, the HRW crop is already damaged beyond repair. Meanwhile, demand for old-crop U.S. supplies remains slow with another less than stellar weekly Export Sales and Shipment report (for the week ending Thursday, April 12) set for release.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.51 $0.03 -$0.33 May $0.004
Soybeans: $9.71 -$0.04 -$0.71 May -$0.001
SRW Wheat: $4.45 $0.09 -$0.31 May $0.001
HRW Wheat: $4.50 $0.09 -$0.39 May $0.003
HRS Wheat: $6.08 $0.07 -$0.10 May $0.010

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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