DTN Closing Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS

Cattle-feeding country was untested through the day as producers cautiously raised asking prices in light of the board's recovery. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.24 lower ($42-46.25, weighted average $45.06). Closing generally 8 cents higher, corn quickly reclaimed Wednesday's trade-war crash. Panic selling may have been partially taken off the board as more traders acknowledged that China doesn't buy much U.S. corn anyway. The stock market extended its rebound with the Dow closing 240 points higher and the Nasdaq better by 34.

LIVE CATTLE

Aggressive short-covering and the correction of oversold charts allow most live contracts to finish 120 to 272 higher. A weekly close above 115 basis spot April could get more technical tails wagging. The August contract settled above to 10-day moving average high for the first time since February. That's not exactly a NASCAR trophy for technicians, but it could be a start. Beef cut-outs: widely mixed, up $0.13 (select: $206.31) to off $3.08 (choice: $215.09) with light-to-moderate demand and moderate-to-heavy offerings (94 loads of choice cuts, 25 loads of select cuts, 8 loads of trimmings, 13 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady to $2 higher with Tuesday's country trade. Producers will be digging in late-week heels in the morning, trying hard to sell the balance of ready cattle at higher money with the help of the recent rally in futures.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeders surged sharply higher for the second trading day in a row with prices settling 177 to 297 higher. The real technical significance of this week's action remains uncertain. For what it's worth, spot May managed to close above the 10-day moving average high for the first time since Feb. 20. CME cash feeder index: 04/04: $135.31, up $0.81.

LEAN HOGS:

The thinly trade May contract closed 297 points higher. But for the most part, lean futures settled on a mixed basis, up 72 to off 62. Carcass value took another hit Thursday, pressured by softer demand for all primals (especially the belly). Pork traders, as well as their comrades in the bean market, seemed to be less excitable about a pending trade war. That could be a good thing. Pork cut-out: $70.20, up $0.48. CME cash lean index for 04/03: $55.60, off $0.40 (DTN Projected lean index for 04/04: $55.27, off $0.33).

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

Steady to $1 lower. Opening bids in the morning could be mixed with buyers torn between light receipts on Thursday and further bleeding in the product trade.

John A. Harrington can be reached at john.harrington@dtn.com

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