Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Dryness leading to a lower crop estimate in Argentina, and continued rain in central Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

CONTINUED ARGENTINA DROUGHT

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for major Argentina row crop areas to stay dry through the next week. This continued dryness is leading to lower crop projections. Industry estimates in Argentina are now at 47 million metric tons for the soybean crop compared with USDA's February projection of 54 mmt. Argentina's corn estimate has also declined to industry projections of 35 to 37 mmt compared with USDA's February estimate of 39 mmt.

RAIN AGAIN IN BRAZIL

Across Brazil, wet conditions with below-normal temperatures in Mato Grosso will cause delays to harvesting soybeans and planting second-crop corn (safrinha). This is somewhat unfavorable for development of corn and any late-maturing soybeans. Mostly favorable conditions are in effect for filling, maturing and any early harvesting of soybeans in southern Brazil. In addition, recent rainfall has been beneficial to soybeans in eastern portions of Mato Grosso.

MINIMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Primary wheat areas of the Southern Plains will miss most of the rain being forecasted over the next week. Snow with only fractions of an inch in liquid form are possible from northern Kansas through Nebraska and northeast Colorado Saturday. There is no significant cold threat at this time.

COLD NORTHERN PLAINS WEEKEND

Another round of snow, ice and rain is in store to affect travel, safety and stress livestock in portions of the Northern Plains and western Midwest during the weekend. A break in the pattern begins Sunday and lasts into Tuesday before a new snow-ice-rain event moves in Wednesday. Temperatures in North Dakota are expected to moderate during the coming days, decreasing stress to livestock.

MORE EASTERN MIDWEST FLOODING

In the eastern Midwest and Delta, recent and forecasted rains increase the risk for flash flooding and river flooding in these areas. In some areas severe flooding is occurring and increasing. Damage is also possible to soft red winter wheat with the heavy rains.

FAR WEST FREEZE

In the Far West, a hard freeze warning is in effect for central California. This is likely to affect produce and may also cause some damage to citrus.

COLD SPELL FOR EUROPE

Ukraine and west Russia are in the process of turning much colder at this time. This cold weather outbreak is expected to move westward well into Europe during the weekend and early next week. This will need to be watched, as there is little snow cover to protect the winter wheat and rapeseed crops in Europe from very cold conditions that may occur.

FAVORABLE SOUTH AFRICA TREND

In South Africa, showers and thunderstorms will continue in major crop areas during the next week. Heavy rainfall may occur in north and east areas. This maintains adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops, but it may also lead to local flooding. Continued rain may actually be unfavorable if it leads to severe flooding and increased disease pressure. Reproductive corn in western areas may still benefit from added rainfall.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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