DTN Early Word Grains
Mostly Red to Start the Day
March corn was 1 cent higher, March soybeans were fractionally lower, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 3 cents lower.
CME Globex Recap:Commodities in general were mostly lower early Wednesday with only corn, soybean oil, Minneapolis wheat, cotton, and Malaysian palm oil showing gains. The U.S. dollar continues to firm, its index possibly moving toward a bullish long-term signal on the monthly chart, while DJIA futures were down again.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 245.63 points (1.0%) lower at 24,964.75, the NASDAQ Composite lost 5.16 points to 7,234.31, and the S&P 500 dropped 15.96 points (0.6%) to 2,716.26 Tuesday. DJIA futures were 44 points lower early Wednesday morning. Asian markets closed higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 45.71 points (0.2%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 558.26 points (1.8%), and China's Shanghai Composite closed for holiday. European markets were trading lower with London's FTSE 100 down 13.39 points (0.2%), Germany's DAX losing 84.91 points (0.7%), and France's CAC 40 off 18.42 points (0.4%). The euro was 0.0018 lower at 1.2320 while the U.S. dollar index gained another 0.14 to 89.87. March 30-year T-Bonds were 04/32 higher at 144'00 while April gold dropped $0.30 to $1,330.90. Crude oil was $0.48 lower at $61.31 and Brent crude slipped $0.29 to $64.96. China's Dalian soybean futures were closed for holiday and Malaysian palm oil futures were slightly higher overnight.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | All eyes will be on corn's futures spreads to see if commercial traders want to provide support. | 1) | Corn contracts established bearish short-term technical signals on daily charts Tuesday. |
| 2) | The weather hasn't changed in Argentina, meaning soybean meal and soybeans could continue to find buying interest. | 2) | Commercial selling could increase in soybean, indicated by last week's weaker national average basis. |
| 3) | Weather conditions also remain bleak for U.S. HRW wheat across the U.S. Southern Plains. | 3) | July KC wheat is in position to establish bearish technical signals on its weekly chart. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN The corn market showed a little life overnight with contracts posting 3-cent trading ranges through early Wednesday morning. It's interesting to note that trade volume spiked during Tuesday's sell-off, adding another layer to short-term bearish technical signals for the market. Fundamentally there is little fresh news to provide direction, with weather news out of South America still the focus of attention. Domestically the market may be looking ahead to spring, meaning it is eagerly awaiting the end of March and the subsequent Quarterly Stocks (old-crop) and Prospective Plantings (new-crop) reports. Until then, not much is expected to breathe life into corn, with noncommercial traders keeping tabs on how commercial traders position themselves.
SOYBEANS The soybean market took a breather overnight with contracts showing small losses early Wednesday morning. The weather remains the same in Argentina, prevailing dry conditions with little chance for rain in the forecast. March soybean meal dropped $3 per ton overnight, putting light pressure on soybeans. Heading into the session it was going to be interesting to see if either meal of beans could rebuild bullish momentum lost at the end of Tuesday's session. Early Wednesday would suggest the answer is "no", at least short-term.
WHEAT Winter wheat was hit hard Tuesday, erasing early gains and closing solidly lower. Though the trading week is just over 1 day in, new-crop July Kansas City is already in position to post a bearish technical signal on its weekly chart. Weather remains an issue for the HRW crop in the field, with little precipitation seen since last fall and winter highlighted by wide fluctuations in temperatures and constant wind. Ultimately this could bring buyers back to the market, just not overnight into Wednesday morning.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.35 | -$0.02 | -$0.30 | Mar | $0.002 |
| Soybeans: | $9.56 | $0.05 | -$0.70 | Mar | -$0.004 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.21 | -$0.08 | -$0.28 | Mar | $0.006 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.31 | -$0.07 | -$0.41 | Mar | -$0.001 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.86 | -$0.03 | -$0.16 | Mar | -$0.004 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
(KR)
Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.