DTN Early Word Grains

Falling Feb First

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

March corn was 1 cent lower, March soybeans were 7 cents lower, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 6 cents lower.

CME Globex Recap:

As a new month gets under way, grain and oilseed markets remain under pressure. Soybeans led the way again with old-crop falling almost 8 cents at one point during the overnight session and corn stretching to nearly a 2-cent loss. That's corn for you - always exciting. Wheat remains under pressure as well with both July Kansas City and Chicago falling back. The U.S. dollar was weaker again, only slightly this time, while DJIA futures were also lower.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 72.50 points (0.3%) higher at 26,149.39, the NASDAQ Composite gained 9.00 points (0.1%) to 7,411.48, and the S&P 500 added 1.38 points to 2,823.81 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 45 points lower early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 387.82 points (1.7%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 245.18 points (0.8%), and China's Shanghai Composite off 33.85 points (1.0%). European markets were trading mostly higher with London's FTSE 100 up 0.60 point, Germany's DAX up 34.18 points (0.2%), and France's CAC 40 up 21.82 points (0.4%). The euro was 0.0019 higher at 1.2433 as the U.S. dollar index fell 0.02 to 89.08. March 30-year T-Bonds were 16/32 lower at 147'10 while April gold dipped $1.50 to $1,341.60. Crude oil was $0.47 higher at $66.20 and Brent crude gained $0.58 to $69.47. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower overnight.

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BULL BEAR
1) Corn remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) seasonal uptrend. 1) Corn contracts are in position to roll over into short-term downtrends.
2) South American weather could continue to support the soybean market Thursday. 2) Weekly export shipments (for the week ending Thursday, January 25) could show soybean demand slowing down.
3) New-crop winter wheat contracts remain in uptrends on weekly charts 3) Winter wheat's short-term trends are set to turn down.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN Not much has changed in the corn markets as both old-crop March and new-crop December approach turns to minor (short-term) downtrends on their respective daily charts. Nothing has been decided yet, meaning a rebound from overnight lows could postpone signals another day. Still, it seems the market in general is looking at a change in short-term momentum soon, a move that is unlikely to have much effect on secondary (intermediate-term) seasonal uptrends on weekly charts. As expected, support from noncommercial short-covering waned following Tuesday's close, the cutoff point for this Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report. However, keep an eye on the March-to-May futures spread as it continues to move sideways, threatening a bullish uptick (weakening carry).

SOYBEANS Soybean contracts continue to flirt with a move back into previously established minor (short-term) downtrends on daily charts. Both old-crop March and new-crop November are holding above initial support at 4-day lows of $9.83 3/4 and $10.01 respectively. As with corn, noncommercial short-covering died out as soon as Tuesday's close rolled around, bringing with it the cutoff point for this Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report. Fundamentally the market remains bearish, short-term, given the strong carry in the March-to-May futures spread.

WHEAT The wheat complex was lower again early Thursday despite the fact little has changed, weather-wise, over the U.S. Southern Plains HRW wheat growing area. Like corn and soybeans, July Kansas City wheat is in position to see its minor (short-term) trend roll from up to down, possibly as soon as Thursday's close. July KC has the added possibility of establishing a possible island-top formation on its daily chart if it closes near the session low and gaps lower overnight into Friday morning.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.30 $0.00 -$0.31 Mar $0.003
Soybeans: $9.27 -$0.04 -$0.68 Mar $0.001
SRW Wheat: $4.23 -$0.05 -$0.29 Mar $0.009
HRW Wheat: $4.26 -$0.03 -$0.41 Mar $0.000
HRS Wheat: $5.90 -$0.08 -$0.17 Mar $0.005

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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