DTN Early Word Opening Livestock

 
Cattle: Steady-$2 HR Futures: Mixed Live Equiv $140.18 + .42* 
Hogs: Steady-$1 HR Futures: 25-50 HR Lean Equiv $ 83.92 - .06**
* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle market watchers arewelcomingthe first 11th hour of 2018. With processing margins narrowing and ample fed numbers anticipated in the months ahead, packers are really trying to dig in their heels. On the other hand, feedlot managers have been understandably impressed by the bullish leverage they commanded over the last several weeks. Asking prices should be restated around $126 to $127 in the South and $200 in the North. Both sides will be looking at the board for help. Accordingly, significant trade volume may not surface until after the CME closes. Live and feeder futures should open on a mixed basis as speculators and commercials position ahead of cash business.

Last year ended with a huge gap between the cash lean index and nearby futures. But now that we've put up the new calendar, the basis has really started to strengthen with country sales appreciating at a much faster pace than spot February hogs. Hog buyers are expected to extend spending Friday, opening with bids steady to $1 higher. Saturday's slaughter is expected to total 385,000 head. Lean futures should open moderately higher supported by residual buying interest and further reports of cash strength.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Not only have cattle buyers collected limited live inventory over the last two holiday weeks, they still need to fund the first full week of production in 2018. Such short-bought realities could tip late-week country leverage to the advantage of feedlot managers.	1)	Reversing from session highs and technical resistance on Thursday, commercials and speculators in the cattle complex revealed a certain nervousness regarding further cash strength in the face of growing beef supplies.
2)	According to ADP and Moody's Analytics, companies hired 250,000 new workers in December, well above Wall Street expectations of 190,000. The month was the best for job creation since March. The government will release official job growth later Friday.	2)	For the week ending Dec. 23, cattle carcasses increased in weight: all cattle averaged 837 pound, 1 lb. heavier than the prior week and 3 lbs. greater than 2016; steers averaged 903 lbs., 1 lb. bigger than the week before and 6 lbs. heftier than last year; heifers averaged 846 lbs., 2 lbs. larger than the previous week and 12 lbs. bigger than the prior year.
3)	Once again this week, the national lean hog base jumped more than a buck higher on Thursday with firm bids prompting larger receipts.	3)	The first major winter storm currently socking the East Coast is restricting consumer movement and causing heating bills to spike -- not good news for normal meat demand and movement.
4)	For the second consecutive session, summer lean hog futures set new contract highs on Thursday. Right or wrong, current board traders firmly believe that strong pork demand will persist through much of 2018.	4)	For the week ending Dec. 30, U.S. hatcheries set 225 million eggs in incubators; up 2% from a year ago. Cumulative chick placements from the week ending Jan. 7, 2017, through Dec. 30, 2017, totaled 9.38 billion, up 2% from the same period a year earlier.

OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS

CATTLE:(NCBA) -- Cattle genetics will be the focus of a new set of webinars to help cattlemen and women better use the tool in their operations. The National Cattlemen's Beef Association is teaming up with six genetics specialists from across the country to offer the NCBA Cattlemen's Genetics Webinar Series, which will kick off Jan. 18, 2018.

Titled "Fake News: EPDs Don't Work," the January webinar will be followed by sessions in February, March and April that explore other aspects of genetic utilization that will give cattle producers a knowledge boost on cattle selection and breeding.

Providing expertise to producers through the webinar series is the eBEEF team, a group of six genetic specialists from five academic institutions that have invested time and resources in the advancement of the cattle industry through genetics. Members of the team are: Darrh Bullock, Ph.D., University of Kentucky; Jared Decker, Ph.D., University of Missouri; Alison Van Eenennaam, Ph.D., University of California-Davis; Matt Spangler, Ph.D., University of Nebraska; and Megan Rolf, Ph.D., and Bob Weaber, Ph.D., Kansas State University.

The Cattlemen's Genetics Webinar Series is being coordinated by the NCBA producer education team. The January session on EPDs will feature Van Eenennaam and Spangler, with other members of the eBEEF team conducting future webinars.

According to Josh White, NCBA executive director of producer education, the genetics webinar series is an extension of NCBA educational webinars started several years ago.

"Our model has been to do six or seven timely and seasonal webinars a year, geared to times that producers are looking at specific production practices," White said. "We noticed that some of our largest viewership has been when we focused on genetics in the spring. We are excited to be partnering with the eBEEF team to expand the offering in 2018."

Darrh Bullock said the eBEEF team was created to expand the understanding of genetics beyond their own states. "Genetics specialists are a limited resource," he said. "Even though we provide education in our own states, we feel an obligation to provide more education on a national basis, recognizing that many states don't have genetics specialists."

Bullock said one of the creations of the eBEEF team is a website on eBeef.org where cattlemen can find out much of what they need to know about the genetics of beef cattle, featuring videos, factsheets, frequently-asked-questions and other resources. The new opportunity to work with NCBA on the webinar, he said, is an extension of the team's outreach.

"We have worked informally with NCBA for years, through Cattlemen's College and individual webinars on genetics," he said. "This new program is an opportunity to provide cattlemen with more information in advance of the upcoming breeding season, getting them up-to-date genetics information. There really is no better way to get the word out about this topic than through NCBA and the educational programs they coordinate. They reach many cattlemen."

Bullock said the upcoming webinar series is geared for any producer who would benefit from genetics knowledge, from the experienced seedstock breeder to someone who might be new to the cattle industry and needs to better understand genetics.

HOGS: (Farm Journal) -- The glory of bacon, without nitrites? Yes, people are looking to make "healthier" bacon.

A Northern Irish food manufacturer Finnebrogue unveiled it's new product, Naked Bacon this past week. The product claims to be free of nitrites, preservatives, E numbers and allergens. Finnebrogue said it worked with a Spanish chemist to develop the new flavoring from natural Mediterranean fruit and spice extracts and apply it to British bacon for the first time.

A growing number of farmers and butchers have started to offer nitrite-free bacon in recent years, but Finnebrogue believes its product is the first to look and taste like traditional bacon and maintain a similar shelf life.

But it's not the first "Naked Bacon" product on the market.

The Kreilich family in St. Genevienve, Mo., sells their family recipe, Naked Bacon product via their online marketplace and at many retail locations around the St. Louis area since 2013.

John Kreilich, founder and CEO, says their Naked Bacon is handcrafted in small batches with a dry cure rub. The product does not add water, uses a longer smoking process.

"Food is a passion for me." Kreilich told the Ladue News. "The idea of being able to create something that people enjoy is very important to me. We're giving people a choice as to the kind of bacon they can have, with different varieties, and a healthier version of bacon, as well."

John Harrington can be reached at harringtonsfotm@gmail.com

Follow John Harrington on Twitter @feelofthemarket

(BAS)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.