Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Daily showers increasing in the U.S. Plains, a bigger system moving through next week, but a focus toward South America planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

WESTERN MIDWEST WET NEXT FEW DAYS, SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN

It is getting drier for much of the eastern half of the Midwest through the weekend, more conducive to some harvest and fieldwork activity. Several waves of showers will move through areas west of the Mississippi River through the weekend though, which may cause some delays. A system will move through next week, likely with widespread coverage of moderate rain. The recent heavy rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans, but should help with some of the drought across the north and southwest.

RAIN INCREASING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A string of somewhat solid showers and embedded thunderstorms has developed in the Central and Southern Plains and will continue to meander across the region into Saturday. Some pockets of heavy rain are and will continue to occur within this band. A system moving through early next week should produce some widespread coverage of showers as well. That is favorable for moistening soils up for winter wheat planting and establishment, which has been in significantly building drought for months in many places. But for those looking to harvest, the rainfall will have some delaying effect. The rain is not forecast to be heavy enough to cause much flooding, but some localized issues may occur.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A zone of showers will continue to sit across the Dakotas on Thursday and more are expected this weekend. Another system moving through early next week could provide good coverage of rainfall as well. All the rain chances will be helpful for the ongoing drought, but not for maturing corn and soybeans.

HARVEST CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, BUT PACE STILL WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE

Harvest continues to be well behind schedule in the Canadian Prairies, and recent rain has produced quality issues. However, drier and warmer conditions this week have been more favorable. A system moving through on Friday and Saturday may only produce meaningful precipitation in Alberta, with drier conditions elsewhere that would remain favorable. The weather pattern continues to be active next week with a couple of systems moving through, though widespread rain is not in the forecast. Producers may still have a difficult time catching up with harvest.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE DRY, BUT MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS STABLE

Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the Delta over the last week, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. Harvest for cotton and soybeans should be moving along fairly easily. Dry conditions are likely through at least Saturday, with only spotty chances moving back in on Sunday. A better chance for widespread rain occurs next week with a system moving through, however.

WET SEASON LIKELY STARTING ON TIME IN BRAZIL DUE TO STRONG FRONT NEXT WEEK

A front brought some areas of showers into central Brazil this week after producing heavy rain farther south. It did produce some flooding across southern states, otherwise conditions are favorable for planting of first-crop soybeans and full-season corn. Another front is forecast to move through next week and may kick off the annual start to the wet season in central Brazil, essentially on time this year. That should get producers planting soybeans at a relatively normal pace.

INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR ARGENTINA, BUT STILL CHILLY

Fronts have frequently moved across Argentina, but it has been largely too cold and dry for developing wheat or corn planting. A system moving through Sunday into early next week may produce more widespread moderate rain the country needs, but would be followed by another burst of colder air, making corn planting rather slow. Producers may switch more of their planting to the later window if this keeps up through October.

DRIER WESTERN EUROPE UNFAVORABLE FOR WINTER PLANTING

Eastern Europe has seen some isolated rainfall this week, but not enough to significantly improve soil moisture. Meanwhile, it continues to be warmer and dry in the west, where drought still exists, and is getting worse in Spain. There could be some issues with winter wheat establishment here and still around Hungary as well. The forecast does depict a good system moving through western areas early or mid next week, but models are just starting to produce good rainfall there. They could easily trend drier over the coming days.

SYSTEM IN THE BLACK SEA REGION PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN

A system spinning around the Black Sea region this week has produced some heavy rain in central and eastern Ukraine, but more limited showers in western Russia. The system will be leaving on Friday with overall drier conditions into next week. However, another system spinning in the Black Sea could get some showers into southern areas early next week. The coverage is expected to be poor, though. While soil moisture has likely increased nicely in Ukraine, it is poor in many parts of western Russia, creating mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment.

AUSTRALIA REMAINING DRY WITH SOME LIMITED SHOWERS WEST

Some showers may hit Western Australia over the next few days, but eastern areas look to remain dry until maybe the middle of next week. The continued drier look is concerning for reproductive winter wheat and canola in the east, while conditions are only slightly better in the west.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER STARTING UP ACROSS CHINA

It had been largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. Fronts are becoming a bit more common going into early October though. Rain may not be extremely heavy, but would result in better coverage of moderate to perhaps spotty heavy amounts. That may disrupt harvest, but would be beneficial for winter wheat and canola planting in central China.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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