DTN Early Word Livestock Comments

Cattle: Steady Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $271.65 +$3.17*

Hogs: Higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $108.82 +$0.31**

*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures closed higher across the board Monday, but the gains lacked conviction. Cash cattle traded higher last week, but traders may want to see another week of stronger cash before moving futures higher to be in line with cash. Buying interest in futures Tuesday might stem from the strength of choice boxed beef on Monday. Choice boxed beef jumped $7.06. However, select declined $1.53, keeping a little caution over price strength. Feeder cattle futures were mixed with the August and September contracts closing lower while later contracts posted moderate gains. The demand at auctions has tempered to some extent due to the extreme dry conditions being experienced in many parts of cattle country. Poor pasture conditions are limiting demand and prices.

Hog futures found the buying strength needed Monday to potentially turn the trend higher. Traders were aggressive from the start, resulting in chart gaps remaining in the December through May contracts. Traders may turn more optimistic at the lower prices, anticipating a price retracement and stronger cash. Slaughter continues to run higher than a year ago, indicating strong demand. Howver, packers have not had to be aggressive in their purchasing of hogs. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed showd cash down $0.99. Pork cutout values increased $0.31. Neither of these may generate much excitement at the beginning of trading Tuesday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may be building support both fundamentally and technically at the current levels.	1)	Packers were able to purchase a fair amount of cattle last week for deferred delivery. This may keep them less aggressive this week.
2)	The seasonal lull in beef demand may be near its end. Increasing demand should provide support to boxed beef prices.	2)	Cattle futures may develop a sideways trading pattern at best, moving through the rest of the month.
3)	Hog futures held support last week and rebounded. It is a technical bounce that may be fundamentally supported.	3)	The strong opening in hog futures on Monday left chart gaps in the December through May contracts. Chart gaps are generally filled.
4)	Packers should be more aggressive Tuesday as they step up purchases of hogs for the week.	4)	Packers have not had to bid aggressively for hogs. Cash has not been supportive.

For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CDT. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.