Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather across the Corn Belt, but lingering dryness issues and nearby heat, some rain in the southern Canadian Prairies, and yet more heat in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

ROUNDS OF RAIN AND OVERALL MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend, bringing some needed rainfall to some areas while others remained unfortunately drier. The setup for this week favors daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through this weekend and quite likely into next week as well. Temperatures will be mild in general, but a stalled front in the South could mean higher temperatures across areas like Missouri and the Ohio Valley. If these areas pick up some good moisture, they could deal with the heat. But if they remain dry, then stress could continue to mount for filling crops

RAIN IN CENTRAL PLAINS, HEAT IN SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

Areas of showers developed in the Central Plains over the weekend, but were sparse while temperatures got hot. Temperatures will remain hot for most areas this week, though a front will be waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas throughout the week. That will aid in thunderstorm development at various points throughout the week, especially with a system riding along the front on Thursday and another going through most of the region Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture across the north while southern areas will remain hotter and drier. This pattern may continue through next week.

PERIODS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

A few isolated showers went through the Northern Plains this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. The forecast is much milder for this week, with many chances for clusters of showers and thunderstorms to move through. That should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could be scattered and miss some key areas and will need to be watched.

RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR DRIER SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers went through Alberta over the weekend, which was beneficial, with some spotty showers elsewhere. Areas of showers will go through the region each day this week, which may favor some of the drier areas in the south. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable. If showers are too isolated, then there could continue to be areas of stress and falling conditions. But if the showers are more widespread, there could be some significant improvements.

LIMITED SHOWERS AND HEAT IN THE DELTA

Spotty showers continued in the Delta over the weekend, hitting very few areas that need rainfall. Showers will be possible each day this week, but will be spotty while temperatures will be hot, a stressful combination for filling cotton and soybeans.

CONTINUED HEAT ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, a pattern that continues this week as well. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. More days of above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall will continue the process.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES BUT LIMITED RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Some isolated showers went through the Black Sea region over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but the forecast is only calling for limited rainfall. Though temperatures will be rather variable into next week, the lack of rain is causing conditions to worsen for filling corn.

HEAVY RAIN IN AUSTRALIA AMONG DRIER PATTERN

Areas of heavy rain fell over southeastern Australia over the weekend, reversing the recent drier trend in the region and improving conditions for winter wheat and canola. A couple of fronts and disturbances will move through this week, but opportunities for additional rainfall are lower. So despite the recent improvements, the overall trend is still toward lower precipitation amounts as crops become reproductive this month and next.

REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN SOAKING CENTRAL CHINA

Typhoon Dolphin moved into central China over the weekend, bringing heavy rain to some corn and soybean areas. The remnants of the storm will sit in central China early this week and be slow to dissolve, which may result in some extreme rainfall amounts in some areas on the North China Plain, leading to flood damage. If those happen to be in some of the primary corn and soybean areas, there could be massive disruption to an otherwise favorable pattern this year.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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