Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Up-and-down temperatures across the U.S., growing drought in the Central and Southern Plains, and rainfall for parts of Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURES, LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDWEST

A front moved through the Midwest on Sunday with some showers across the Ohio Valley. A couple of fronts will hang out across the north where showers may occur over the next few days, but a stronger front will move through on Thursday with another round of colder air and scattered showers. The weather pattern may get more active next week, which would increase potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought ahead of spring planting.

VERY DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Extreme heat was suppressed by a strong cold front moving through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend. Temperatures again will rise quite significantly for Tuesday and Wednesday before another strong front moves through on Thursday and Friday with another round of cooler air. Temperatures continue on the rollercoaster ride with rising readings next week. Despite all the fronts, precipitation is not occurring, which is causing drought to expand across the region, especially in the west. The weather pattern may get more active next week, but that does not guarantee precipitation for some of the driest areas. Winter wheat conditions are falling significantly and soil moisture conditions are not favorable for many areas for spring planting.

UP-AND-DOWN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains will be in the active zone this week, with fronts hanging around. This will produce waffling temperatures, but limited chances for precipitation. Temperatures should rise next week and the weather pattern may feature more widespread and heavier precipitation, though that is a bit uncertain. The region would certainly welcome some precipitation ahead of spring planting.

RAINFALL DEFICITS STILL LARGE IN THE DELTA

Recent dry conditions are turning the momentum around toward building drought instead of reducing it, which is already widespread across the Delta region. While this will make fieldwork very easy, it will not be favorable for early growth as soil moisture is becoming limited again after some good rain in early March. The pattern looks to be a bit more active next week and into early April, but may not necessarily bring through much precipitation.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN BRAZIL, BUT DRYNESS CONCERNS

A front coming up from Argentina will keep showers going in Brazil for much of the week, but the forecast is trending toward drier conditions this weekend and through next week for much of the safrinha corn areas as well as the south. Conditions are mixed for safrinha corn so far, and there is roughly a month left to the wet season.

HEAVY RAIN IN NORTHERN ARGENTINA

A front brought scattered showers to much of Argentina over the weekend and over the north on Monday, helping to stabilize crop conditions. More showers will be possible later this week and weekend. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn, or heading toward maturity, such as early-planted soybeans. So the rainfall is only somewhat helpful. Drier conditions earlier this year have already taken their toll on production.

EUROPE GETTING MORE ACTIVE AGAIN

A system will drop through Europe on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread showers. The system may continue across the southeast through the weekend. Overall, the pattern may be getting a little busier again as more systems are forecast to move into the continent next week. Outside of some dryness concerns in the northeast and some wetness concerns in the southwest, conditions are overall favorable for winter wheat as well as corn planting and early growth as that increases in April.

SPOTTY RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Patchy dryness still exists in the Black Sea region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. Some spotty showers will be possible this week, but the general trend has been drier this month. A system may spin through the region this weekend into next week, which would promote scattered showers, possibly mixed with snow in some areas.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA WATCHING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE

Isolated showers occurred over eastern Australia this weekend, but most areas were fairly dry. That should help producers continue to increase harvest for cotton and sorghum. A front will go through with some showers over the next few days while Western Australia will be watching Tropical Cyclone Narelle this weekend. Both areas will need some rain prior to winter wheat and canola planting, which starts in April.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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