Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drought reduction in the Central U.S., a return of hot and dry weather in the Plains, and a boost for dry areas in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

COLD, BUT GETTING WARMER IN THE MIDWEST

A massive winter storm system dumped extremely heavy snow across the northern Midwest and produced severe thunderstorms across the south over the weekend and on Monday. Lake-effect snow continues in the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A blast of arctic air is also moving through the region, but will not last long. Warmer air will spread through the region on Wednesday and Thursday, with a mix of rain and snow ushering in the warmer air. Despite some cold, conditions for winter wheat are likely to be positive with all the recent rainfall and drought reduction. Several fronts will move through later this week, the weekend and the middle of next week, bringing changing temperatures, but not much precipitation is in the forecast.

HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Extremely strong winds brought in some colder air and frost damage to the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday and Monday, but that is already on its way out, being replaced by extreme warmth that is likely to set records later this week. The frosts, followed by heat and dryness, will not be favorable for winter wheat conditions this week as a lot of areas dry out significantly. Drought continues to grow over the southwestern Plains, increasing stress for wheat and being unfavorable for the start of planting as well.

WARMER AIR RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A band of heavy snow fell across the Northern Plains this weekend, especially in Montana. Cold air quickly moved in over the weekend, but is already on its way out as heat builds over the next few days, melting the snow. A burst of showers is moving through the Dakotas with the warmer air on Tuesday. A cold front will move through this weekend with limited showers and some cooler air, but the region will be on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures as they increase again early next week ahead of another strong front in the middle of next week.

DROUGHT REDUCTION, BUT DEFICITS STILL LARGE IN THE DELTA

Recent rainfall has done a good job at increasing soil moisture and reducing drought in the Delta, as well as pumping up water levels on all area rivers. The increase in soil moisture should have a positive impact, though long-term drought still resides throughout most of the region. Drier weather this week will not be favorable for reducing the drought further. And if dry conditions continue next week as well, as currently forecast, the tendency for deeper drought may continue.

REGULAR RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

Scattered showers continue across central Brazil throughout the week, favorable for safrinha corn. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. A front will come up from Argentina on Tuesday, but will only bring showers for a couple of days. More rain will be needed there as it is getting much drier.

DRIEST AREAS OF ARGENTINA SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL

A front finally brought some heavy rain to southern Argentina on Monday, and another is forecast to do the same on Tuesday, which will help to stabilize crop conditions. There is not a lot of time left for rainfall to produce positive impacts; however, with early-crop harvest continuing to expand and late-crop harvest approaching at the end of the month.

EASTERN EUROPE STILL DRIER THIS WEEK

Scattered showers fell over the western half of Europe over the weekend, which included Germany and Italy, but eastern areas continue to be unfavorably dry. Some showers continue in central Europe Tuesday and Wednesday, but will be followed by a lot of drier conditions. With warmer temperatures bringing winter wheat out of dormancy, some of the crop is doing so in fairly dry conditions, especially in the northeast. The pattern may be a little more active for eastern areas next week.

SPOTTY RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Patchy dryness still exists in the Black Sea region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of southwestern Russia, which is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall this week. Showers may be a little more widespread next week, but continue to be light.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system is producing scattered showers for eastern Australia over the next few days. Not all areas are forecast to get some rainfall, but that isn't necessarily favorable as cotton and sorghum continue to mature and harvest begins in some areas. The moisture will be important for the coming winter wheat crop, however, which starts to be planted in April.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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