Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Systems moving through the Central and Northern U.S. that will decrease drought, and limited rainfall in Argentina's driest areas are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system moved into the Midwest on Tuesday and produced widespread thunderstorms and some severe weather. That system continues eastward on Wednesday. Another system will produce a mix of rain and snow for Thursday and Friday with another this weekend, which may produce some heavy snow across the north. Another disturbance will move through in the middle of next week with a mix of rain and snow as well. Recent and forecast precipitation will help to reduce drought across much of the region prior to spring planting.

STORM MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stronger system moved into the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday and continues east on Wednesday with stronger storms and heavier rain in the southeast. Multiple systems will follow for later this week, weekend, and next week, but will target Nebraska over the rest of the region and even then may not bring much precipitation. Drier areas in the southwest are becoming concerning for winter wheat, particularly in the Texas Panhandle, while drought areas in the southeast got some improvement, creating mixed conditions. Winds will occasionally be quite strong through the weekend, which may cause some damage and increase the risk of wildfires.

TWO MORE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The weather pattern is chaotic into next week, with multiple systems moving through the Northern Plains. Some heavy precipitation will be possible, including heavy snow with two systems moving through the weekend. There are some drier areas that need some precipitation before spring planting commences and will get it, but there are areas that will not and we could see drought growing there.

DELTA SEEING DROUGHT REDUCTION

A system will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Delta on Wednesday, adding to the heavy rain from the weekend and easing drought. Rainfall deficits have been large over the winter though, and this rainfall will not be enough to completely eliminate the drought. The focus will then shift northward for the weekend and next week, however, giving another unfavorable break in the rainfall.

REGULAR RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

Scattered showers have filled back in across central Brazil, being more favorable for newly planted safrinha corn. That should continue through next week, though areas in the northeast and south will not see nearly as much. Soil moisture is still on the low side and there is limited time to stack soil moisture before the wet season rainfall shuts down in the next 6-8 weeks.

DRIEST AREAS OF ARGENTINA SEEING LITTLE RAINFALL UNTIL THIS WEEKEND

Spotty showers continue to be possible across Argentina this week, but with very few areas seeing anything of consequence. Spots in the southeast are particularly dry and in need of rainfall. A front is forecast to move through this weekend with more widespread precipitation, and another is expected for early-mid next week. But time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact for filling corn and soybeans.

SPAIN STILL VERY WET, EASTERN EUROPE DRIER

Spain has been very wet this winter, which may be too much of a good thing as some flooding and soggy conditions could be flooding wheat there. Though some showers will move through France, Germany, and the UK, the rest of Europe is likely to be drier this week, somewhat unfavorable for winter wheat that is starting to awaken from dormancy at least across central areas. Northern Germany and Poland are in need of some more moisture before that happens, but Poland may not see much through next week.

GETTING DRIER IN THE BLACK SEA REGION AGAIN

Drier conditions are back in the Black Sea region after some limited coverage and amounts over the last couple of months. Patchy dryness still exists in the region. Higher temperatures through next week will awaken some of the southern areas from dormancy. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of far southern Russia.

BREAK IN HEAVY RAIN FOR AUSTRALIA

Recent heavy rain has improved soil moisture, but also caused some flooding in eastern Australia. Drier weather is forecast for the rest of this week, which should be more beneficial for cotton and sorghum to recover. A complicated system will move through southern areas through the weekend, then continue in the east next week. Showers may or may not hit much of the farmland in the country.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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