Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple systems moving across the U.S., especially for early March, and drier conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANGING WEATHER TO THE MIDWEST

Snowpack is extremely low across most of the Midwest and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good about soil moisture. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring. Quick-hitting systems will move through this week, which will result in streaks of lighter precipitation. A better chance for more widespread precipitation will occur on Sunday and Monday and another pair of systems may bring some more precipitation later next week and weekend. The region will be on the edge of colder air to the north and warmer air to the south, resulting in mixed temperatures through early March.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL NEXT WEEK

Strong winds and dry soils have led to elevated wildfire conditions as well as falling conditions for winter wheat in the Central and Southern Plains. The storm track remains busy, but only limited precipitation is forecast until the middle of next week as a couple of storm systems may bring through more widespread precipitation. Drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas, and will start to develop in Kansas if the precipitation doesn't materialize.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK

The Northern Plains will be on the edge of colder air to the north and warmer air to the south through next week, causing variable temperatures. Multiple storm systems will move through over the next two weeks, which may result in some better precipitation and potential reduction in drought if it can be heavier and widespread enough. That is uncertain.

HIGHER WATER LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DESPITE DROUGHT IN THE DELTA

Water levels along the Mississippi River are rising despite the ongoing drought in the Delta region. Precipitation farther north in the Midwest is helping to keep river levels from dropping too low. However, this drought is long-standing and an issue prior to spring planting. Several fronts are forecast to move through this week and next, but with limited precipitation in the region as the drought continues into March.

SHOWERS IN BRAZIL GOING ISOLATED LATER THIS WEEK

Widespread heavy rain continues in Brazil on Wednesday before it starts to go isolated and migrate to northern areas. The current rain favors newly-planted safrinha corn, but soil moisture is still tenuous. Consistent, heavy rainfall needs to continue for the next two months to put the corn in good standing for pollination and grain fill. Currently, the forecast is not favorable for that situation, which will cause problems for corn should this not reverse.

ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS FORECAST FOR ARGENTINA

Showers have become spotty in Argentina over the last week, which is forecast to continue into March. This will not be enough to lift areas out of drought in any significant way, and the trend toward lower crop ratings will likely resume. Outside of a few lucky spots, February rainfall has been below normal like January had been, which is causing concern for both corn and soybean production.

BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS EUROPE

Though a few fronts will move through this week with some showers, the pattern is drying out for Europe this week into next week. That is fine after the last few months of seemingly non-stop active weather. However, the pattern looks favorable for increased precipitation across Spain by the middle of next week. Spain found a needed break after heavy precipitation. If showers come back in a significant way, there could be issues with flooding.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers continue to move through the Black Sea region over the next day or two. Precipitation has been more consistent lately, but not heavy. Still, soil moisture and snow cover are building in some areas, which will favor winter wheat when it awakens from dormancy.

MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A stalled front will continue to provide beneficial rainfall to cotton and sorghum in the fill stage across southeast Australia into the weekend. Not all areas are benefiting from the increased rainfall, however. But the tropics are appearing to become more active, which could help to bring heavy precipitation into the country in March.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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