Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Scattered rain showers will continue to move across Argentina this week with showers becoming more isolated in central Brazil by the weekend. Temperatures are on the rise across the Plains with an active pattern in the South. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Tuesday.

STORMS BECOME MORE FREQUENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK

A clipper brought a burst of arctic cold to eastern areas over the weekend while it was warmer in the west. The warmer air will spread east this week and the threat for arctic cold has ended for a while. However, the weather pattern will become more active and a few systems this week could produce scattered showers. The chance for bigger storms is elevated as well, and the southern end of the region may be favored by a system this weekend.

RAIN SHOWERS FAVOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. However, the pattern is becoming more active and there are at least some chances for precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Models are mixed on the impact, but will likely be sporadic and not widespread. Some areas may see favorable precipitation while others are missed. The south is favored by a system this weekend.

BIGGER STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

Warm air has flooded the region and is forecast to continue into next week to some degree. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation this week, but nothing that looks particularly heavy. Snow cover is basically gone except in the far northeast and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting next week. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

SHOWERS AND SNOW MELT HELP RIVER LEVELS IN THE DELTA

Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the Midwest. That will eventually make it through the Mississippi River system as well. But water levels are low and will need a more active weather pattern to bring them up permanently. That will start this week with a few systems moving through with scattered showers. Some heavier rain will be possible in the Delta this weekend. Additional systems are in the forecast next week as well.

SHOWERS BECOME ISOLATED IN CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEKEND

Heavy rain has been falling in central Brazil lately, which has been favorable for the last remaining filling soybeans, but has been a little troublesome for transport and fieldwork as producers switch from soybeans to safrinha corn. Heavier rain continues this week but will thin out this weekend into early next week. The country still needs these showers to produce a lot of rain since most of the country is behind and soil moisture is rated as low in many areas for this time of year.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR ARGENTINA THIS WEEK

Though it was quiet over the past weekend, several rounds of showers are forecast to move through the country this week. The focus is on central and northern areas while drier areas in the south will have less precipitation. However, the active weather situation is forecast to continue next week as well. Though the trend has been for worsening soil moisture and crop conditions over the last six weeks or so, some improvements will be made. That is too late for some of the corn and soybean crops that are more advanced, though.

WAMRTH BUILDS IN THE BLACK SEA

The risk for winterkill on winter wheat will dissipate later this week after a brief cold shot comes to an end on Tuesday. Warmer temperatures will spread through afterward. Systems have become more frequent and are easing some of the precipitation deficits in the region as well as providing more protective snow cover. More systems are forecast to bring meaningful precipitation for this weekend and next week, mainly in the form of rain. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved across New South Wales over the weekend, helping to ease some of the rainfall deficits in the region. However, dryness is still widespread across the country. The remnants to Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move through much of the country this week, helping to ease some of the stress as well. Crop conditions are still overall poor for cotton and sorghum, but may be improving.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS CHINA

Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months, especially across southeast China. Shower chances are more frequent over the next couple of weeks, but with low amounts. The region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next month or two.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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