Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A warmer and more active pattern for the U.S. and more chances for rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WARMER IN THE MIDWEST, SEVERAL SYSTEMS SET TO MOVE THROUGH

A clipper brought a burst of arctic cold to eastern areas of the Midwest over the weekend while it was warmer in the west. The warmer air will spread east this week and the threat for arctic cold has ended for a while. However, the weather pattern will become more active and a few systems this week could produce scattered showers. The chance for bigger storms is elevated as well, and the southern end of the region may be favored by a system this weekend.

VERY WARM FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE LIMITED SHOWERS

Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue in the Central and Southern Plains through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. However, the pattern is becoming more active and there are at least some chances for precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Models are mixed on the impact, but will likely be sporadic and not widespread. Some areas may see favorable precipitation while others are missed. The south is favored by a system this weekend.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION FOR WARM NORTHERN PLAINS

Warm air flooded the Northern Plains over the weekend and is forecast to continue into next week to some degree. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation this week, but nothing that looks particularly heavy. Snow cover is basically gone except in the far northeast and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting next week. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER STILL RUNNING LOW, WILL GET SOME HELP THIS WEEK

Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the Midwest. That will eventually make it through the Mississippi River system as well. But water levels are low and will need a more active weather pattern to bring them up permanently. That will start this week with a few systems moving through with scattered showers. Some heavier rain will be possible in the Delta this weekend. Additional systems are in the forecast next week as well.

SWITCHOVER TO SAFRINHA CORN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL CONTINUES AMONGST SHOWERS

Heavy rain has been falling in central Brazil lately, which has been favorable for the last remaining filling soybeans, but has been a little troublesome for transport and fieldwork as producers switch from soybeans to safrinha corn. Heavier rain continues this week but will thin out this weekend. The country still needs these showers to produce a lot of rain since most of the country is behind and soil moisture is rated as low in many areas for this time of year.

RAIN IN ARGENTINA MAY NOT HIT THE DRIEST AREAS WELL

It has been very dry for much of Argentina, but is getting more active in February. Though it was quiet over the past weekend, several rounds of showers are forecast to move through the country this week. The focus is on central and northern areas while drier areas in the south will have less precipitation. However, the active weather situation is forecast to continue next week as well. Though the trend has been for worsening soil moisture and crop conditions over the last six weeks or so, some improvements will be made. That is too late for some of the corn and soybean crops that are more advanced, though.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues through next week. The situation is very favorable for winter crops as well as prepping soils for spring crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

COLD AIR LEAVING BLACK SEA REGION, PRECIPITATION INCREASING

Very cold air recently has brought thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat in the Black Sea region. Another brief cold shot will move through Monday and Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will spread through afterward. Systems have become more frequent and are easing some of the precipitation deficits in the region as well as providing more protective snow cover. More systems are forecast to bring meaningful precipitation for this weekend and next week. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

SOME RAIN FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved across New South Wales over the weekend, helping to ease some of the rainfall deficits in eastern Australia. However, dryness is still widespread across the country. The remnants to Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move through much of the country this week, helping to ease some of the stress as well. Crop conditions are still overall poor for cotton and sorghum, but may be improving.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.