Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big change in the weather pattern starting next week, low water levels on the Mississippi River, and the potential end of good weather in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

NEAR-RECORD WARM IN THE MIDWEST

A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers through this weekend. Temperatures are rising and may be record-high in some areas ahead of that front. Temperatures will drop behind it. Another system is likely to bring showers to the region early next week with more being likely later in the week as the pattern gets more active for the second half of the month.

WARMTH CHALLENGING RECORDS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BIG WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE COMING

Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend and may challenge record highs in some areas. A system will move in early next week with areas of precipitation that will increase later in the week. Models are still working out the timing and coverage of precipitation, but could mean some snow in the north and strong winds. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS TO END THE WEEK

A front will move through the Northern Plains on Friday and Saturday with limited showers and a drop in temperature. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with a couple moving through with better coverage of precipitation. With temperatures falling to more seasonable readings this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW

Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. The pattern may become more active starting next week. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

HEAVY RAIN FOR BRAZIL

A front that has moved into Brazil is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain into the weekend. One more front will move into southern areas this weekend. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil early next week and stalling, that could be the start of drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

ARGENTINA TRENDING DRIER AFTER WEEKEND FRONT

Soil moisture is still really good across much of Argentina. One more front will move through this weekend with widespread showers, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on fronts with less rainfall potential for the rest of November and into December. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

OVERALL GOOD CONDITIONS FOR WINTER WHEAT ESTABLISHMENT IN MUCH OF EUROPE

Scattered showers continue across western Europe for the rest of the week while a cold front moves down into the north with showers for this weekend. Cooler and wetter weather are in the forecast for next week. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent as winter crops start to go dormant across the north.

BLACK SEA REGION STILL DRY DESPITE RECENT SHOWERS

Despite some showers this week, eastern areas of the Black Sea region are still dealing with rainfall deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. More limited showers are forecast for next week, but the region needs more rain. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system moving through eastern Australia late this week and weekend could bring scattered showers, but many areas will be missed. Drier conditions are forecast there next week with showers increasing across the west. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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