Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A burst of colder air east of the Rockies this weekend into early next week, lake-effect snows around the Great Lakes, falling water levels on the Mississippi River, and heavier rainfall for central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

INTENSE COLD HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR MIDWEST

The Midwest is seeing yet another clipper move through on Friday with scattered showers and breezy winds. One more moving through this weekend will bring down a blast of arctic air for a couple of days. That cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes could add up to some significant lake-effect snow in some prone areas. Temperatures will quickly rise early-mid next week.

SHORT BURST OF COLD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The storm track continues to be well to the north through next week, which continues to leave the Central and Southern Plains drier despite some fronts moving through. One of those fronts will bring down some cold air for Sunday and Monday, but temperatures will quickly rise afterward. The dryness is not a major concern in November as falling temperatures throughout the month will eventually get wheat into more of a dormant state. It will help with harvest and fieldwork, instead. A pattern change may bring through potential for more rainfall for the second half of the month.

LIGHT SNOW FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

One last clipper will move through the Northern Plains for Friday into Saturday, which will be able to produce a little bit of accumulating snow on Saturday. Temperatures will fall drastically with that system, but only briefly as temperatures rise quickly on Monday. Breezy winds continue to be an issue in this clipper pattern, but should slow down after the warmer air moves back into the region early next week.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS FALLING

Water levels are falling on the Mississippi River. Very little precipitation from a couple of fronts this week and complete dryness next week will mean that water levels will return to some hazardous levels for the second half of November if the pattern doesn't change to bring more systems through the middle of the country. That pattern may be coming, but it does not guarantee improved precipitation chances in the right areas.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front remains active with showers in central and northern Brazil through next week as it gets reinforced by a front moving up from Argentina this weekend and again in the middle of next week. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans and the need to replant. It's not perfect, but showers may be heavier into next week and be more beneficial.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN ARGENTINA MAY BE RUNNING OUT

Soil moisture is still rather good for early growth on corn and sunflowers in Argentina. Soils are primed for soybean planting which will be increasing this month. Winter wheat has been in really good shape, though consistent rainfall has increased disease pressure. Two more fronts will move through -- one here on Friday and another for Tuesday and Wednesday, which keep conditions overall favorable. However, longer-range models indicate that the weather pattern may turn drier afterward, a possible turning point in the overall weather conditions.

OVERALL GOOD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF EUROPE

Drier weather has been in place across the eastern half of Europe this week, but systems moving through the Atlantic have been producing some additional rain from the UK down through Spain. One of those systems will likely move through the Mediterranean with beneficial showers this weekend and early next week, catching southeastern Europe with showers as well. Yet another wave of rain is forecast to move through the continent next weekend and the following week. Weather conditions are still overall favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

BLACK SEA REGION STILL DEALING WITH DRYNESS ISSUES

Showers in October have improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the Black Sea region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A stretch of drier weather continues through the weekend. Some showers may be possible next week which may be helpful for some areas, but the coverage looks low. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. If showers do not come with the warmth, wheat plants will continue growing in some fairly insufficient soil moisture. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system will move through eastern Australia over the next couple of days, but with limited precipitation that will be beneficial for some areas and miss others. Spotty showers are in the forecast for next week as well. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature, there is less time for rain to be beneficial before harvest starts up and cotton and sorghum are planted.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.