DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central, a trough in eastern Canada, one more in Hudson Bay, and another trough in the North Pacific. The North Pacific trough continues to send systems over the ridge into the weekend, a typical clipper pattern. One will combine with the Hudson Bay trough this weekend and deepen across the East, but only briefly as it moves out early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Pacific trough will eventually move into the West late next week or weekend and push the ridge eastward, making for a new pattern for the second half of November.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar despite all of the systems moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A shot of cold air will be in place this weekend across the eastern half of the country for a few days, resulting in some lake-effect snow in the prone areas near the Great Lakes. Another clipper seems poised to move across Canada around the middle of next week, which may actually bring in some warmer air to the eastern half of the country by the end of next week. A new system is likely to move into the West late next week, which will move through at least a portion of the rest of the country that weekend or the following week as a new pattern emerges.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...94 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...10 AT ANGEL FIRE, NM

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...EUGENE, OR 0.60 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central, a trough in eastern Canada, one more in Hudson Bay, and another trough in the North Pacific. The North Pacific trough continues to send systems over the ridge into the weekend, a typical clipper pattern. One will combine with the Hudson Bay trough this weekend and deepen across the East, but only briefly as it moves out early next week. The Pacific trough will eventually move into the West late next week or weekend and push the ridge eastward, making for a new pattern for the second half of November.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar despite all of the systems moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A shot of cold air will be in place this weekend across the eastern half of the country for a few days, resulting in some lake-effect snow in the prone areas near the Great Lakes. Another clipper seems poised to move across Canada around the middle of next week, which may actually bring in some warmer air to the eastern half of the country by the end of next week. A new system is likely to move into the West late next week, which will move through at least a portion of the rest of the country that weekend or the following week as a new pattern emerges.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A couple of clippers will move through that should bring some limited precipitation through Saturday. That may include some snow on Saturday as well. Temperatures will fall drastically with that system, but only briefly as temperatures rise next week. Breezy winds may also be an issue, which would be more of a concern for combine fires when the humidity is too low.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The storm track continues to be well to the north, which should leave the region drier despite some fronts moving into or through the region. One of those fronts will bring down some cold air for Sunday and Monday, but temperatures will quickly rise afterward. The dryness is not a major concern in November as falling temperatures throughout the month will eventually get wheat into more of a dormant state. It will help with harvest and fieldwork, instead.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The region continues to be under the gun from multiple clipper systems that will move through the region.

One of them moving through this weekend will bring down some colder air for a couple of days. That cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes could add up to some significant lake-effect snow in some prone areas. Winds should be breezy with all the clippers moving through, but precipitation should be rather limited outside of the lake-effect. Overall, conditions are still favorable for the remaining harvest and other fieldwork.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels are falling on the Mississippi River. Very little precipitation from a couple of fronts this week and complete dryness next week will mean that water levels will return to some hazardous levels for the second half of November if the pattern doesn't change to bring more systems through the middle of the country. That pattern may be coming, but it does not guarantee improved precipitation chances.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front remains active with showers in central and northern Brazil through next week as it continually gets reinforced by fronts moving up from Argentina. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but showers may be heavier into next week and be more beneficial.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture is still rather good for early growth on corn and sunflowers. Soils are primed for soybean planting which will be increasing this month. Winter wheat has been in really good shape, though consistent rainfall has increased disease pressure. Two more fronts will move through over the next couple of days and again next week, which keep conditions overall favorable. However, longer-range models indicate that the weather pattern may turn drier afterward, a possible turning point in the overall weather conditions.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Drier weather is in place for the eastern half of the continent for the rest of this week and weekend, but systems moving through the Atlantic will produce some additional rain from the UK down through Spain.

One of those systems will likely move through the Mediterranean with beneficial showers this weekend and early next week, catching southeastern Europe with showers as well. Weather conditions are still overall favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers in October have improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A stretch of drier weather continues through the weekend. Some showers may be possible next week which may be helpful for some areas. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. If showers do not come with the warmth, wheat plants will continue growing in some fairly insufficient soil moisture. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): One more system will move through to end the week, but with limited precipitation that will be beneficial for some areas and miss others. Spotty showers are in the forecast for next week as well. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature, there is less time for rain to be beneficial before harvest starts up and cotton and sorghum are planted.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers northeast. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, falling Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Scattered showers Thursday night-Sunday. Lake-effect snow Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, falling Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers northeast Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, falling Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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