Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system bringing areas of heavy rain to the southern U.S. and a drier stretch for central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

PERIODS OF RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST

Cooler air in the Midwest will produce areas of frost for yet another morning on Saturday. Southern areas will get some showers through the weekend. A front should move through during the middle of next week with more chances for rain and another drop in temperature. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress in a few areas as well.

HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A compact system will continue with showers and thunderstorms across the Central and especially Southern Plains through the weekend and may produce some areas of heavy rain and potential severe weather. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment. Largely drier weather after that for next week should promote harvest.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

It remains quiet for another couple of days in the Northern Plains after recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday and Monday, though the prospect for showers is uncertain. Systems moving through the Canadian Prairies could bring some showers to the region next week as well.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS STILL LOW DESPITE RECENT AND FORECAST RAIN

Recent rainfall across the Delta and Midwest has helped the drought, but has provided very little benefit to the water levels on the Mississippi River. Another system will move through this weekend with some areas of heavier rain. Some benefit will occur for the drought and rivers, but low water levels continue to plague shipping up and down the Mississippi until we see a significant change in the weather pattern.

CENTRAL BRAZIL DRIER, RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK

Cooler and drier weather that has been occurring in central Brazil is unusual for this time of year. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil in the middle of next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch in central Brazil is only slightly concerning as producers will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A front is spreading showers through Argentina on Friday and has already produced some areas of heavy rain in the south. The front will move north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or so and increase in November.

WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EUROPE INTO NEXT WEEK

A system continues to send waves of showers across Europe into next week. The rainfall this week has not been consistent, but it has been fairly widespread. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the remaining corn harvest and other fieldwork.

BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION

Dryness has been a concern in the Black Sea region, especially in southwestern Russia. However, a front comes that through from one of the European systems on Friday and more waves of showers into next week will bring through more widespread and moderate to heavy rainfall that the region needs. It is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks, but the reduction in drought will be helpful regardless. The region still needs an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

The trend has been for building dryness in Australia over the last few weeks. A system went through with limited showers already this week and another will move through this weekend with more showers. But the rain may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are still mixed across the country.

COOL AND DRY IN CHINA

Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air and dryness over the weekend. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast. Some showers will be possible next week, but are forecast to be light.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.