Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A bigger storm bringing changes to the middle of the U.S., increasing rainfall in central Brazil, and showers across the rest of South America and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MIDWEST FRIDAY, MORE NEXT WEEK

A few showers will move through the Midwest on Friday, but drier weather over the last few days should have promoted harvest. Another front is forecast to move into the region on Sunday and Monday and will likely stall into next week, which could mean more rain for some areas, especially west.

FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Showers earlier this week in the Central and Southern Plains may have slowed down harvest progress in some areas, but those with winter wheat likely found the rain favorable. We could see a few spotty showers into the weekend, but drier conditions are likely, benefiting harvest. A system will send a cold front into the region on Sunday that may stick around through next week with scattered showers. The movement of this front is uncertain, but if it moves east, cooler temperatures will fill in behind it.

BIG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

A system will move through the Northern Plains this weekend and could produce some areas of heavy rain as well as minor snow accumulations in Montana. We will have to see if another system can form in the region in the middle of next week as well. Drier conditions over the last couple of days could have allowed for some significant harvest progress.

MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS BRIEFLY RISING BEFORE FALLING AGAIN

Showers that moved through the Delta earlier this week caused drought reduction across the north while heavy rain in the Ohio Valley will provide a boost to water levels on the Mississippi River into next week, at least to some degree. That will likely be brief, however, as drier weather is in place now through most of next week.

TRUE START TO WET SEASON COMING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil has been producing showers this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil is seeing showers increase in coverage and intensity after a two-week dry spell. Producers were able to get a lot of planting done during the break, and the increasing rainfall now should be the true start to the consistent rainfall of the wet season. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

GOOD PLANTING, EARLY GROWTH CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment in Argentina. Soybean planting will increase going into November when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 degrees Celsius and the first round of corn planting has finished. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers have been consistent in eastern Europe, especially the southeast over the last week. A small disturbance also produced showers for parts of Spain as well, which were sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas this weekend with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture.

RAIN SPREADING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA

A system in southeastern Europe is moving through the Black Sea region through Saturday with fairly widespread rainfall. Additional systems and fronts will move through Sunday through most of next week, providing more potential rainfall. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region, especially in the east.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Australia is in a drier stretch of weather that continues through next week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are faring much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages, but the forecast is not supportive of that. Instead, smaller areas of showers that are mostly below normal are in the forecast through next week and specifically in New South Wales as other states get drier.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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