Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Some disruption to the U.S. harvest, the increasing rainfall forecast in central Brazil, and showers across Argentina, southern Brazil, and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST, LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURE

A front moved into western areas of the Midwest on Sunday, but most areas were hot and dry over the weekend, promoting fieldwork. The front will move through the region Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers that will disrupt the harvest. A significant drop in temperature is occurring behind the front, but temperatures will rise later this week. A few showers may be possible late week as well. But overall drier conditions continue to promote harvest for most of the region.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through the Central Plains over the weekend as a cold front moved into the region. The front is likely to produce some areas of rain as it moves south through the Southern Plains early this week. We could see some showers later this week, but drier conditions are likely. A burst of cooler temperatures is moving through the region as well, but will again rise above normal midweek. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers. Some disruption to harvest is possible, though winter wheat areas would like to see some additional rainfall after the recent heat.

HEAVY RAIN, COLD AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PAST WEEKEND

Heavy rain moved through portions of the Northern Plains over the weekend, slowing down harvest progress. Another system will move through this coming weekend and could produce more of the same. A dry period in between the systems could allow for some significant harvest progress this week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Hot and dry weather over the weekend continued to promote harvest in the Delta, but water levels are falling again on the Mississippi and other rivers in the region, which may impact transportation this fall. Some showers over the far south will move north through the region at the same time a front drives south through it Monday and Tuesday, bringing some nuisance showers that could be briefly disruptive to harvest. Drier weather that follows will continue to be supportive.

FORECAST RAINFALL INCREASING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front produced rainfall in southern Brazil on Saturday, and another front is moving into the region for early this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got planting progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent. Models are a little more aggressive with showers developing in the region late this week and weekend.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Most areas in Argentina have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Another front moved through this weekend with fairly widespread rainfall, but also a significant drop in temperature. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Scattered showers moved through Europe over the weekend and continue in some areas this week as well. A small disturbance may produce showers for Spain this week, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas later this week with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

RAINFALL FORECAST INCREASING IN THE BLACK SEA

Some showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, an extension of a system that lingered over southeastern Europe from last week. However, many areas saw little or no rainfall, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The rainfall forecast has increased for this week and a system settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Showers moved through some areas in Argentina over the weekend, mostly across the wetter west. Showers were spottier in the east. The country is in a drier stretch of weather that continues this week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are faring much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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